Week of October 5, 2026  ·  Le Dossier

The tape held its bid

The week reviewed and the week ahead: index and cross-asset moves, sector rotation, dealer positioning, the earnings calendar, and the insider and options-flow tape.

Published Sunday Oct 11Weekly editionNext issue · Oct 186 min read
01

What mattered this week

The few things from this week that change how next week sets up.

SPY finished the trailing five sessions at +1.16%. Into next week, dealer positioning brackets SPY between the 770 put wall and the 780 call wall. The sections below are built from the desk’s own data: index and cross-asset closes, sector rotation, the coming week’s earnings calendar, disclosed insider buying, and our options-flow scanner.

02

How the desk's week finished

Every trade the desk closed this week, grouped by book, with the best level each reached.

11 trades closed this week, 6 green — 55%.

By book
BookWinsTradesWin rate
daytrade61155%
Best peaks this week
TradeBookPeak
SPY 778C 2026-10-09daytrade+116%
SPY 781C 2026-10-06daytrade+30%
SPY 779C 2026-10-06daytrade+29%
SPY 776C 2026-10-08daytrade+22%
SPY 773P 2026-10-07daytrade+20%
03

How the week actually traded

Index and cross-asset closes measured against where the week began.

Trailing five sessions across the majors, with the last session broken out. Breadth and rotation detail follows in the sector map.

Five-session performance
IndexCloseLast day5 days
S&P 500 (SPY)778.57+0.60%+1.16%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)751.27+0.49%+0.23%
Dow (DIA)516.11+0.87%+0.98%
Russell 2000 (IWM)278.94+0.49%−0.92%
04

Cross-Asset

Rates, the dollar, commodities and crypto over the same five sessions. Equity moves that disagree with this table usually lose the argument.

Cross-asset, five sessions
MarketLast5 days
VIX14.84−3.07%
10-yr yield5.244−0.63%
Dollar index102.21+0.27%
WTI crude91.85+0.81%
Gold4,216.3+1.30%
Bitcoin83,650−2.23%
05

Which sectors money rotated into

Five-day performance against twenty-one-day. Upper-right is leadership; lower-left is where money left.

Utilities leads over the window at +3.58%; Communication brings up the rear at −1.11%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.

Rotation map

5-day vs 21-day — upper-right is leadership

LEADINGWEAKENINGLAGGINGIMPROVING21-DAY RETURN5-DAY RETURNXLKXLFXLEXLVXLYXLPXLIXLUXLBXLREXLC
Sector performance
ETFSector1D5D21DYTD
XLUUtilities+0.82%+3.58%−2.32%−4.2%
XLPStaples+0.05%+2.97%+0.04%+7.4%
XLEEnergy−0.22%+2.58%−0.08%+42.5%
XLREReal Estate+1.89%+2.34%−4.15%+3.1%
XLYDiscretionary+1.05%+2.23%−0.06%−4.7%
XLVHealth Care+1.59%+2.02%+3.28%+9.8%
XLFFinancials+0.91%+1.60%−4.37%−0.4%
XLBMaterials+0.32%−0.16%−2.98%+7.2%
XLIIndustrials+0.51%−0.49%−1.81%+7.1%
XLKTechnology+0.54%−1.05%+5.95%+37.8%
XLCCommunication−1.51%−1.11%−1.98%−5.6%
06

Where dealers sit going into next week

Where dealer hedging sits as the week closes, and the strikes that will anchor Monday.

Dealer positioning from listed options open interest. Heavy call strikes act as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes mark where hedging flows tend to defend. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.

SPY — open-interest profile

Spot 778.60 · call wall 780 (11,620 OI) · put wall 770 (6,872 OI) · pinned between the walls

810805800795790785780 · CALL WALL775770 · PUT WALL765760755750745SPOT 778.60
Call OIPut OI

QQQ — open-interest profile

Spot 751.84 · call wall 755 (6,222 OI) · put wall 738 (13,204 OI) · pinned between the walls

785780775770765760755 · CALL WALL750745740738 · PUT WALL735730725720SPOT 751.84
Call OIPut OI
07

Who reports next week

Companies reporting next week, with the estimates the street is working from.

Grouped by day, then by session — before the open, during hours (slot unconfirmed), after the close. Coverage is every reporter in roughly the top 1,000 by market cap (the large-cap index universe). 31 smaller names reporting in the window are excluded; the full list is available on request. Where a name is on our coverage list, the one-line read is ours.

No reporting company matches.

Reports that move something
NameReadWhenMkt capEPS est
Tuesday, October 13
Before open
JPMNII trajectory + investment banking + credit qualityBefore open881.0B$5.94
JNJJohnson & JohnsonBefore open618.1B$2.53
UNHUnitedHealth Group IncorporatedBefore open333.0B$4.12
GSInvestment banking rebound + trading + asset managementBefore open257.0B$12.90
WFCWells Fargo & CompanyBefore open248.1B$1.85
CCitigroup Inc.Before open214.8B$2.66
DPZDomino's Pizza IncBefore open10.2B$4.33
ACIAlbertsons Companies, Inc.Before open6.0B$0.31
After close
AZZAZZ Inc.After close4.1B$1.82
Wednesday, October 14
Before open
ASMLASML Holding N.V.Before open682.1B$12.47
BACNII trajectory + consumer credit + capital returnBefore open374.9B$1.11
MSMorgan StanleyBefore open294.4B$2.83
BLKBlackRock, Inc.Before open165.0B$14.01
PGRProgressive Corporation (The)Before open127.2B$4.37
FASTFastenal CompanyBefore open57.9B$0.34
STTState Street CorporationBefore open48.1B$3.63
After close
HOMBHome BancShares, Inc.After close5.7B$0.63
Thursday, October 15
Before open
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.Before open2,375.4B$4.45
SCHWThe Charles Schwab CorporationBefore open167.5B$1.66
PLDPrologis, Inc.Before open122.6B$1.58
BNYThe Bank Of New York Mellon Corporation Before open97.4B$2.26
USBU.S. BancorpBefore open88.9B$1.32
PNCPNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (The)Before open87.6B$4.97
MRSHMarshBefore open84.3B$1.96
ERICEricssonBefore open32.0B$0.14
WITWipro LimitedBefore open16.5B$0.04
FHNFirst Horizon CorporationBefore open11.0B$0.53
CMCCommercial Metals CompanyBefore open7.0B$1.97
During / TBD
INFYInfosys LimitedDuring / TBD43.4B$0.21
After close
IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc.After close39.2B$0.66
JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.After close21.5B$1.95
AAAlcoa CorporationAfter close11.3B$1.65
Friday, October 16
Before open
TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc.Before open77.2B$6.86
TFCTruist Financial CorporationBefore open56.4B$1.17
MTBM&T Bank CorporationBefore open31.4B$4.98
CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc.Before open27.0B$1.38
RFRegions Financial CorporationBefore open23.1B$0.67
During / TBD
HDBHDFC Bank LimitedDuring / TBD112.9B$0.40
IBNICICI Bank LimitedDuring / TBD99.9B$0.40
Scenario — JPM

Beat: NII stable + IB rebound + benign credit = 3-5% pop, lifts XLF
Miss: NII step-down + credit deterioration = 4-7% downside

Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).

Open drift calls
TickerReportedBiasConfidenceGap
PEP10-08Bullish57%+3.7%
NKE10-01Bearish51%−0.7%
08

What insiders and Congress bought this week

This week's disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed.

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.

Recent disclosed buying
FilerTickerTrade dateAmountType
Silverman David MAPH08-05$20,908,476EVP, Human Resources
Shellberg Jeffrey D.BWB08-05$3,366,736Insider
Sullivan DonCSW08-05$1,555,812EVP, Chief Strategy Officer
Blaylock Ronald EPFE08-05$998,821Director
Buckley Mortimer JPFE08-05$960,369Director
Harvey David CCVBF08-05$917,680EVP Chief Operating Officer
Mcwatt MichaelNTB08-05$741,319Managing Director, Cayman
Biglari, SardarLOCO08-05$676,00010% Owner
Prince MatthewNET08-05$177,47610b5-1
Briggs Andrew JFMAO08-05$104,280Insider
09

Where the big options money went

Unusual options activity across the week — the sweeps and blocks large enough to suggest conviction rather than hedging.

Our scanner watches the listed options tape in real time for sweeps and blocks hitting at the ask or the bid across the most liquid underlyings. This week it flagged 358,980 qualifying prints, the largest a $190,901,725 single order. The live tape runs on the dashboard during market hours.

10

What to carry into next week

The read the desk is carrying into Monday, and what would invalidate it.

Positioning resets Monday. The rotation map says where the sponsorship is; the walls say where the friction is. Plan entries at the places those two agree, and let the calendar — not the tape — decide when to be flat.