Week of September 21, 2026  ·  Le Dossier

The tape held its bid

The week reviewed and the week ahead: index and cross-asset moves, sector rotation, dealer positioning, the earnings calendar, and the insider and options-flow tape.

Published Sunday Sep 27Weekly editionNext issue · Oct 45 min read
01

TL;DR

SPY finished the trailing five sessions at +1.27%. Into next week, dealer positioning brackets SPY between the 735 put wall and the 787 call wall. The sections below are built from the desk’s own data: index and cross-asset closes, sector rotation, the coming week’s earnings calendar, disclosed insider buying, and our options-flow scanner.

02

Desk — week in review

14 trades closed this week, 7 green — 50%.

By book
BookWinsTradesWin rate
daytrade71450%
Best peaks this week
TradeBookPeak
SPY 768C 2026-09-24daytrade+68%
SPY 770P 2026-09-23daytrade+26%
QQQ 745P 2026-09-22daytrade+25%
SPY 773C 2026-09-25daytrade+25%
IWM 287P 2026-09-22daytrade+22%
03

Week in Review

Trailing five sessions across the majors, with the last session broken out. Breadth and rotation detail follows in the sector map.

Five-session performance
IndexCloseLast day5 days
S&P 500 (SPY)771.35+0.54%+1.27%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)744.50+0.46%+3.19%
Dow (DIA)517.49+0.94%+0.31%
Russell 2000 (IWM)281.97+0.11%−0.75%
04

Cross-Asset

Rates, the dollar, commodities and crypto over the same five sessions. Equity moves that disagree with this table usually lose the argument.

Cross-asset, five sessions
MarketLast5 days
VIX14.87+0.41%
10-yr yield5.184+3.72%
Dollar index100.97+0.75%
WTI crude92.41−7.87%
Gold4,321.2−2.34%
Bitcoin84,766−1.63%
05

Sector Rotation

Health Care leads over the window at +1.03%; Utilities brings up the rear at −2.76%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.

Rotation map

5-day vs 21-day — upper-right is leadership

LEADINGWEAKENINGLAGGINGIMPROVING21-DAY RETURN5-DAY RETURNXLKXLFXLEXLVXLYXLPXLIXLUXLBXLREXLC
Sector performance
ETFSector1D5D21DYTD
XLVHealth Care+0.49%+1.03%−0.52%+9.8%
XLKTechnology+0.79%+0.72%+4.03%+36.0%
XLIIndustrials+0.93%+0.28%−4.69%+7.9%
XLPStaples+0.45%+0.21%−3.54%+5.7%
XLBMaterials+0.20%+0.12%−6.49%+8.0%
XLEEnergy−0.81%−0.54%−0.27%+36.0%
XLYDiscretionary+0.21%−1.46%−4.59%−6.6%
XLCCommunication−0.91%−1.59%+1.33%−3.4%
XLFFinancials+0.55%−1.89%−5.28%−0.2%
XLREReal Estate−0.26%−2.43%−6.92%+2.9%
XLUUtilities+0.38%−2.76%−8.43%−8.5%
06

Positioning Into Next Week

Dealer positioning from listed options open interest. Heavy call strikes act as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes mark where hedging flows tend to defend. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.

SPY — open-interest profile

Spot 771.21 · call wall 787 (16,237 OI) · put wall 735 (8,975 OI) · pinned between the walls

805800795790787 · CALL WALL785780775770765760755750745740SPOT 771.21
Call OIPut OI

QQQ — open-interest profile

Spot 745.04 · call wall 755 (8,476 OI) · put wall 727 (31,066 OI) · pinned between the walls

778773768763758755 · CALL WALL753748743738733728727 · PUT WALL723718713SPOT 745.04
Call OIPut OI
07

Earnings Ahead

Grouped by day, then by session — before the open, during hours (slot unconfirmed), after the close. Coverage is every reporter in roughly the top 1,000 by market cap (the large-cap index universe). 61 smaller names reporting in the window are excluded; the full list is available on request. Where a name is on our coverage list, the one-line read is ours.

No reporting company matches.

Reports that move something
NameReadWhenMkt capEPS est
Monday, September 28
During / TBD
GRFSGrifols, S.A.During / TBD5.0B$0.27
After close
JEFJefferies Financial Group Inc.After close9.0B$1.04
MTNVail Resorts, Inc.After close4.9B($5.37)
Tuesday, September 29
Before open
CCLCarnival Corporation Ltd.Before open29.8B$1.36
KMXCarMax IncBefore open8.0B$0.67
UECUranium Energy Corp.Before open4.7B($0.04)
After close
AIRAAR Corp.After close4.9B—
Wednesday, September 30
Before open
JBLJabil Inc.Before open32.6B$3.86
FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc.Before open9.6B$4.32
CAGConAgra Brands, Inc.Before open7.0B$0.31
After close
MUHBM revenue + DRAM/NAND price trajectoryAfter close1,220.3B$31.24
Thursday, October 1
Before open
ACNAccenture plcBefore open118.4B$3.19
MKCMcCormick & Company, IncorporatedBefore open12.9B$0.75
MKC.VMcCormick & Company, IncorporatedBefore open12.9B—
AYIAcuity Inc.Before open9.3B$5.32
During / TBD
VFSVinFast Auto Ltd.During / TBD7.3B—
After close
NKENKE — quarterly resultsAfter close53.4B$0.44
Scenario — MU

Beat: HBM revenue beat + raised pricing commentary = 8-12% pop, lifts all memory names
Miss: HBM ramp slower than expected or NAND price weakness = 10-18% drawdown

Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).

Open drift calls
TickerReportedBiasConfidenceGap
COST09-24Bearish52%−0.9%
08

Insider Week

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.

Recent disclosed buying
FilerTickerTrade dateAmountType
Silverman David MAPH08-05$20,908,476EVP, Human Resources
Shellberg Jeffrey D.BWB08-05$3,366,736Insider
Sullivan DonCSW08-05$1,555,812EVP, Chief Strategy Officer
Blaylock Ronald EPFE08-05$998,821Director
Buckley Mortimer JPFE08-05$960,369Director
Harvey David CCVBF08-05$917,680EVP Chief Operating Officer
Mcwatt MichaelNTB08-05$741,319Managing Director, Cayman
Biglari, SardarLOCO08-05$676,00010% Owner
Prince MatthewNET08-05$177,47610b5-1
Briggs Andrew JFMAO08-05$104,280Insider
09

Options Flow

Our scanner watches the listed options tape in real time for sweeps and blocks hitting at the ask or the bid across the most liquid underlyings. This week it flagged 4,660 qualifying prints, the largest a $18,101,800 single order. The live tape runs on the dashboard during market hours.

10

Bottom Line

Positioning resets Monday. The rotation map says where the sponsorship is; the walls say where the friction is. Plan entries at the places those two agree, and let the calendar — not the tape — decide when to be flat.