Week of August 24, 2026  ·  Price Theory Research

A range week — nobody blinked

The week reviewed and the week ahead: index and cross-asset moves, sector rotation, dealer positioning, the earnings calendar, and the insider and options-flow tape.

Published Sunday Aug 30Le Dossier — WeeklyNext issue · Sep 66 min read
01

TL;DR

SPY finished the trailing five sessions at +0.47%. Into next week, dealer positioning brackets SPY between the 760 put wall and the 785 call wall. The sections below are built from the desk’s own data: index and cross-asset closes, sector rotation, the coming week’s earnings calendar, disclosed insider buying, and our options-flow scanner.

02

Desk — week in review

15 trades closed this week, 8 green — 53%.

By book
BookWinsTradesWin rate
daytrade81553%
Best peaks this week
TradeBookPeak
NVDL 33C 2026-08-28daytrade+123%
SPY 765C 2026-08-25daytrade+33%
TSLA 362.5C 2026-08-26daytrade+32%
SPY 771C 2026-08-27daytrade+30%
SPY 773C 2026-08-28daytrade+28%
03

Week in Review

Trailing five sessions across the majors, with the last session broken out. Breadth and rotation detail follows in the sector map.

Five-session performance
IndexCloseLast day5 days
S&P 500 (SPY)769.35−0.23%+0.47%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)716.43−0.65%+0.42%
Dow (DIA)535.06−0.03%+0.53%
Russell 2000 (IWM)295.75−1.35%−1.40%
04

Cross-Asset

Rates, the dollar, commodities and crypto over the same five sessions. Equity moves that disagree with this table usually lose the argument.

Cross-asset, five sessions
MarketLast5 days
VIX14.43−4.63%
10-yr yield4.720−0.38%
Dollar index99.70+0.91%
WTI crude83.40−4.20%
Gold4,529.9−2.04%
Bitcoin78,765−0.25%
05

Sector Rotation

Technology leads over the window at +3.10%; Staples brings up the rear at −2.30%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.

Rotation map

5-day vs 21-day — upper-right is leadership

LEADINGWEAKENINGLAGGINGIMPROVING21-DAY RETURN5-DAY RETURNXLKXLFXLEXLVXLYXLPXLIXLUXLBXLREXLC
Sector performance
ETFSector1D5D21DYTD
XLKTechnology−1.60%+3.10%+5.92%+28.6%
XLCCommunication+1.36%+0.57%+4.40%−3.4%
XLFFinancials+0.35%−0.20%+2.04%+5.7%
XLEEnergy+0.63%−0.74%+5.24%+37.3%
XLBMaterials−0.14%−0.75%+5.48%+15.3%
XLYDiscretionary+1.15%−0.91%+1.01%−1.0%
XLIIndustrials−0.97%−1.06%−1.48%+12.1%
XLUUtilities−1.02%−1.13%−3.65%−1.1%
XLREReal Estate−0.40%−1.96%−1.31%+10.1%
XLVHealth Care−0.26%−2.02%+5.29%+10.1%
XLPStaples+0.39%−2.30%+0.44%+9.9%
06

Positioning Into Next Week

Dealer positioning from listed options open interest. Heavy call strikes act as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes mark where hedging flows tend to defend. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.

SPY — open-interest profile

Spot 769.28 · call wall 785 (37,624 OI) · put wall 760 (37,007 OI) · pinned between the walls

803798793788785 · CALL WALL783778773768763760 · PUT WALL758753748743738SPOT 769.28
Call OIPut OI

QQQ — open-interest profile

Spot 716.91 · call wall 700 (32,950 OI) · put wall 700 (30,098 OI) · trading above its call wall — extended

749744739734729724719714709704700 · CALL WALL699694689SPOT 716.91
Call OIPut OI
07

Earnings Ahead

Grouped by day, then by session — before the open, during hours (slot unconfirmed), after the close. Coverage is every reporter in roughly the top 1,000 by market cap (the large-cap index universe). 107 smaller names reporting in the window are excluded; the full list is available on request. Where a name is on our coverage list, the one-line read is ours.

No reporting company matches.

Reports that move something
NameReadWhenMkt capEPS est
Monday, August 31
Before open
SAICScience Applications International CorporationBefore open5.5B$2.25
During / TBD
SSLSasol Ltd.During / TBD7.5B—
GRFSGrifols, S.A.During / TBD5.4B$0.27
Tuesday, September 1
Before open
MDTMedtronic plcBefore open115.2B$1.38
NIONIO Inc.Before open10.9B($0.07)
MMEDMiniMed Group, Inc.Before open5.5B$0.09
After close
PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc. — Software - InfrastructureAfter close312.0B$0.51
DELLDell Technologies Inc.After close306.1B$4.72
CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding LtdAfter close45.1B$0.91
MDBMongoDB, Inc.After close35.4B$0.08
GTLBGitLab Inc.After close7.6B($0.07)
Wednesday, September 2
Before open
BF.ABrown Forman CorporationBefore open12.7B—
BF.BBrown Forman CorporationBefore open12.7B$0.38
OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.Before open4.3B$1.14
During / TBD
TGSTransportadora De Gas Sa Ord BDuring / TBD4.3B$0.63
After close
AVGOAI semis ASIC revenue + VMware integrationAfter close1,767.6B$2.83
SNOWSnowflake Inc.After close114.1B($0.51)
HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyAfter close72.0B$0.82
NTAPNetApp, Inc.After close37.4B$1.72
FIVEFive Below, Inc.After close13.7B$1.32
AGXArgan, Inc.After close6.4B$2.67
NTSKNetskope, Inc.After close6.1B($0.26)
AIC3.ai, Inc.After close1.6B($0.63)
CHPTChargePoint Holdings, Inc.After close0.2B($1.58)
Thursday, September 3
Before open
CIENCiena CorporationBefore open56.6B$1.45
TTCToro Company (The)Before open9.5B$1.30
VSXYVictorias Secret & Co.Before open7.1B$0.78
CPBThe Campbell's CompanyBefore open6.9B$0.40
DOOBRP Inc.Before open4.6B($0.46)
BRCBrady CorporationBefore open4.4B—
During / TBD
CPRTCopart, Inc.During / TBD30.3B$0.39
VFSVinFast Auto Ltd.During / TBD7.4B($0.26)
After close
ZSZscaler, Inc.After close30.3B$0.06
IOTSamsara Inc.After close24.4B$0.02
GWREGuidewire Software, Inc.After close16.7B$0.49
LULULULU — quarterly resultsAfter close12.5B$1.79
DOCUDocuSign, Inc.After close12.2B$0.44
PATHUiPath, Inc.After close9.5B$0.04
PLPlanet Labs PBCAfter close7.5B($0.18)
Friday, September 4
During / TBD
KTKT CorporationDuring / TBD9.5B—
Scenario — PANW

Beat: Strong revenue beat with raised guide → 4-8% pop typical for tech; AI-tailwind commentary amplifies the move
Miss: Revenue or guide miss → 6-12% drawdown common; tech multiples compress fast on weak forward visibility

Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).

Open drift calls
TickerReportedBiasConfidenceGap
INTU08-25Bearish57%−3.4%
MRVL08-27Bearish53%−1.5%
NVDA08-26Bearish53%−1.6%
08

Insider Week

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.

Recent disclosed buying
FilerTickerTrade dateAmountType
Silverman David MAPH08-05$20,908,476EVP, Human Resources
Shellberg Jeffrey D.BWB08-05$3,366,736Insider
Sullivan DonCSW08-05$1,555,812EVP, Chief Strategy Officer
Blaylock Ronald EPFE08-05$998,821Director
Buckley Mortimer JPFE08-05$960,369Director
Harvey David CCVBF08-05$917,680EVP Chief Operating Officer
Mcwatt MichaelNTB08-05$741,319Managing Director, Cayman
Biglari, SardarLOCO08-05$676,00010% Owner
Prince MatthewNET08-05$177,47610b5-1
Briggs Andrew JFMAO08-05$104,280Insider
09

Options Flow

Our scanner watches the listed options tape in real time for sweeps and blocks hitting at the ask or the bid across the most liquid underlyings. This week it flagged 3,883 qualifying prints, the largest a $8,000,000 single order. The live tape runs on the dashboard during market hours.

10

Bottom Line

Positioning resets Monday. The rotation map says where the sponsorship is; the walls say where the friction is. Plan entries at the places those two agree, and let the calendar — not the tape — decide when to be flat.