Week of August 24, 2026 · Price Theory Research
A range week — nobody blinked
The week reviewed and the week ahead: index and cross-asset moves, sector rotation, dealer positioning, the earnings calendar, and the insider and options-flow tape.
TL;DR
SPY finished the trailing five sessions at +0.47%. Into next week, dealer positioning brackets SPY between the 760 put wall and the 785 call wall. The sections below are built from the desk’s own data: index and cross-asset closes, sector rotation, the coming week’s earnings calendar, disclosed insider buying, and our options-flow scanner.
Desk — week in review
15 trades closed this week, 8 green — 53%.
| Book | Wins | Trades | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| daytrade | 8 | 15 | 53% |
| Trade | Book | Peak |
|---|---|---|
| NVDL 33C 2026-08-28 | daytrade | +123% |
| SPY 765C 2026-08-25 | daytrade | +33% |
| TSLA 362.5C 2026-08-26 | daytrade | +32% |
| SPY 771C 2026-08-27 | daytrade | +30% |
| SPY 773C 2026-08-28 | daytrade | +28% |
Week in Review
Trailing five sessions across the majors, with the last session broken out. Breadth and rotation detail follows in the sector map.
| Index | Close | Last day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 769.35 | −0.23% | +0.47% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 716.43 | −0.65% | +0.42% |
| Dow (DIA) | 535.06 | −0.03% | +0.53% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | 295.75 | −1.35% | −1.40% |
Cross-Asset
Rates, the dollar, commodities and crypto over the same five sessions. Equity moves that disagree with this table usually lose the argument.
| Market | Last | 5 days |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.43 | −4.63% |
| 10-yr yield | 4.720 | −0.38% |
| Dollar index | 99.70 | +0.91% |
| WTI crude | 83.40 | −4.20% |
| Gold | 4,529.9 | −2.04% |
| Bitcoin | 78,765 | −0.25% |
Sector Rotation
Technology leads over the window at +3.10%; Staples brings up the rear at −2.30%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.
Rotation map
5-day vs 21-day — upper-right is leadership
| ETF | Sector | 1D | 5D | 21D | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | Technology | −1.60% | +3.10% | +5.92% | +28.6% |
| XLC | Communication | +1.36% | +0.57% | +4.40% | −3.4% |
| XLF | Financials | +0.35% | −0.20% | +2.04% | +5.7% |
| XLE | Energy | +0.63% | −0.74% | +5.24% | +37.3% |
| XLB | Materials | −0.14% | −0.75% | +5.48% | +15.3% |
| XLY | Discretionary | +1.15% | −0.91% | +1.01% | −1.0% |
| XLI | Industrials | −0.97% | −1.06% | −1.48% | +12.1% |
| XLU | Utilities | −1.02% | −1.13% | −3.65% | −1.1% |
| XLRE | Real Estate | −0.40% | −1.96% | −1.31% | +10.1% |
| XLV | Health Care | −0.26% | −2.02% | +5.29% | +10.1% |
| XLP | Staples | +0.39% | −2.30% | +0.44% | +9.9% |
Positioning Into Next Week
Dealer positioning from listed options open interest. Heavy call strikes act as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes mark where hedging flows tend to defend. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.
SPY — open-interest profile
Spot 769.28 · call wall 785 (37,624 OI) · put wall 760 (37,007 OI) · pinned between the walls
QQQ — open-interest profile
Spot 716.91 · call wall 700 (32,950 OI) · put wall 700 (30,098 OI) · trading above its call wall — extended
Earnings Ahead
Grouped by day, then by session — before the open, during hours (slot unconfirmed), after the close. Coverage is every reporter in roughly the top 1,000 by market cap (the large-cap index universe). 107 smaller names reporting in the window are excluded; the full list is available on request. Where a name is on our coverage list, the one-line read is ours.
No reporting company matches.
| Name | Read | When | Mkt cap | EPS est |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, August 31 | ||||
| Before open | ||||
| SAIC | Science Applications International Corporation | Before open | 5.5B | $2.25 |
| During / TBD | ||||
| SSL | Sasol Ltd. | During / TBD | 7.5B | — |
| GRFS | Grifols, S.A. | During / TBD | 5.4B | $0.27 |
| Tuesday, September 1 | ||||
| Before open | ||||
| MDT | Medtronic plc | Before open | 115.2B | $1.38 |
| NIO | NIO Inc. | Before open | 10.9B | ($0.07) |
| MMED | MiniMed Group, Inc. | Before open | 5.5B | $0.09 |
| After close | ||||
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks, Inc. — Software - Infrastructure | After close | 312.0B | $0.51 |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc. | After close | 306.1B | $4.72 |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | After close | 45.1B | $0.91 |
| MDB | MongoDB, Inc. | After close | 35.4B | $0.08 |
| GTLB | GitLab Inc. | After close | 7.6B | ($0.07) |
| Wednesday, September 2 | ||||
| Before open | ||||
| BF.A | Brown Forman Corporation | Before open | 12.7B | — |
| BF.B | Brown Forman Corporation | Before open | 12.7B | $0.38 |
| OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | Before open | 4.3B | $1.14 |
| During / TBD | ||||
| TGS | Transportadora De Gas Sa Ord B | During / TBD | 4.3B | $0.63 |
| After close | ||||
| AVGO | AI semis ASIC revenue + VMware integration | After close | 1,767.6B | $2.83 |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | After close | 114.1B | ($0.51) |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | After close | 72.0B | $0.82 |
| NTAP | NetApp, Inc. | After close | 37.4B | $1.72 |
| FIVE | Five Below, Inc. | After close | 13.7B | $1.32 |
| AGX | Argan, Inc. | After close | 6.4B | $2.67 |
| NTSK | Netskope, Inc. | After close | 6.1B | ($0.26) |
| AI | C3.ai, Inc. | After close | 1.6B | ($0.63) |
| CHPT | ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. | After close | 0.2B | ($1.58) |
| Thursday, September 3 | ||||
| Before open | ||||
| CIEN | Ciena Corporation | Before open | 56.6B | $1.45 |
| TTC | Toro Company (The) | Before open | 9.5B | $1.30 |
| VSXY | Victorias Secret & Co. | Before open | 7.1B | $0.78 |
| CPB | The Campbell's Company | Before open | 6.9B | $0.40 |
| DOO | BRP Inc. | Before open | 4.6B | ($0.46) |
| BRC | Brady Corporation | Before open | 4.4B | — |
| During / TBD | ||||
| CPRT | Copart, Inc. | During / TBD | 30.3B | $0.39 |
| VFS | VinFast Auto Ltd. | During / TBD | 7.4B | ($0.26) |
| After close | ||||
| ZS | Zscaler, Inc. | After close | 30.3B | $0.06 |
| IOT | Samsara Inc. | After close | 24.4B | $0.02 |
| GWRE | Guidewire Software, Inc. | After close | 16.7B | $0.49 |
| LULU | LULU — quarterly results | After close | 12.5B | $1.79 |
| DOCU | DocuSign, Inc. | After close | 12.2B | $0.44 |
| PATH | UiPath, Inc. | After close | 9.5B | $0.04 |
| PL | Planet Labs PBC | After close | 7.5B | ($0.18) |
| Friday, September 4 | ||||
| During / TBD | ||||
| KT | KT Corporation | During / TBD | 9.5B | — |
Beat: Strong revenue beat with raised guide → 4-8% pop typical for tech; AI-tailwind commentary amplifies the move
Miss: Revenue or guide miss → 6-12% drawdown common; tech multiples compress fast on weak forward visibility
Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).
| Ticker | Reported | Bias | Confidence | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | 08-25 | Bearish | 57% | −3.4% |
| MRVL | 08-27 | Bearish | 53% | −1.5% |
| NVDA | 08-26 | Bearish | 53% | −1.6% |
Insider Week
The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.
| Filer | Ticker | Trade date | Amount | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silverman David M | APH | 08-05 | $20,908,476 | EVP, Human Resources |
| Shellberg Jeffrey D. | BWB | 08-05 | $3,366,736 | Insider |
| Sullivan Don | CSW | 08-05 | $1,555,812 | EVP, Chief Strategy Officer |
| Blaylock Ronald E | PFE | 08-05 | $998,821 | Director |
| Buckley Mortimer J | PFE | 08-05 | $960,369 | Director |
| Harvey David C | CVBF | 08-05 | $917,680 | EVP Chief Operating Officer |
| Mcwatt Michael | NTB | 08-05 | $741,319 | Managing Director, Cayman |
| Biglari, Sardar | LOCO | 08-05 | $676,000 | 10% Owner |
| Prince Matthew | NET | 08-05 | $177,476 | 10b5-1 |
| Briggs Andrew J | FMAO | 08-05 | $104,280 | Insider |
Options Flow
Our scanner watches the listed options tape in real time for sweeps and blocks hitting at the ask or the bid across the most liquid underlyings. This week it flagged 3,883 qualifying prints, the largest a $8,000,000 single order. The live tape runs on the dashboard during market hours.
Bottom Line
Positioning resets Monday. The rotation map says where the sponsorship is; the walls say where the friction is. Plan entries at the places those two agree, and let the calendar — not the tape — decide when to be flat.