Week of August 10, 2026  ·  Price Theory Research

A range week — nobody blinked

The week reviewed and the week ahead: index and cross-asset moves, sector rotation, dealer positioning, the earnings calendar, and the insider and options-flow tape.

Published Tuesday Aug 11Le Dossier — WeeklyNext issue · Aug 238 min read
01

TL;DR

SPY finished the trailing five sessions at +0.04%. Into next week, dealer positioning brackets SPY between the 750 put wall and the 780 call wall. The sections below are built from the desk’s own data: index and cross-asset closes, sector rotation, the coming week’s earnings calendar, disclosed insider buying, and our options-flow scanner.

02

Week in Review

Trailing five sessions across the majors, with the last session broken out. Breadth and rotation detail follows in the sector map.

Five-session performance
IndexCloseLast day5 days
S&P 500 (SPY)771.61−0.18%+0.04%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)718.28−0.36%−0.77%
Dow (DIA)538.54−0.08%−0.35%
Russell 2000 (IWM)301.33+0.45%−0.13%
03

Cross-Asset

Rates, the dollar, commodities and crypto over the same five sessions. Equity moves that disagree with this table usually lose the argument.

Cross-asset, five sessions
MarketLast5 days
VIX15.36−6.91%
10-yr yield4.684+1.23%
Dollar index99.82−0.07%
WTI crude83.09+9.66%
Gold4,439.5+8.40%
Bitcoin63,552−1.11%
04

Sector Rotation

Health Care leads over the window at +3.94%; Utilities brings up the rear at −2.18%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.

Rotation map

5-day vs 21-day — upper-right is leadership

LEADINGWEAKENINGLAGGINGIMPROVING21-DAY RETURN5-DAY RETURNXLKXLFXLEXLVXLYXLPXLIXLUXLBXLREXLC
Sector performance
ETFSector1D5D21DYTD
XLVHealth Care+1.69%+3.94%+4.39%+8.3%
XLEEnergy+4.72%+2.88%+6.09%+31.9%
XLBMaterials+0.62%+2.27%+5.16%+15.3%
XLYDiscretionary−0.11%+1.20%+3.16%+1.1%
XLFFinancials+0.36%−0.07%+3.15%+5.2%
XLCCommunication+0.51%−0.17%+0.21%−4.3%
XLKTechnology−0.87%−0.29%+2.78%+29.1%
XLPStaples−0.21%−0.45%+0.44%+9.3%
XLIIndustrials−0.29%−0.92%+2.38%+16.9%
XLREReal Estate−1.29%−1.64%−0.64%+10.0%
XLUUtilities−1.07%−2.18%−5.61%−0.1%
05

Positioning Into Next Week

Dealer positioning from listed options open interest. Heavy call strikes act as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes mark where hedging flows tend to defend. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.

SPY — open-interest profile

Spot 772.82 · call wall 780 (8,804 OI) · put wall 750 (12,637 OI) · pinned between the walls

805800795790785780 · CALL WALL775770765760755750 · PUT WALL745740SPOT 772.82
Call OIPut OI

QQQ — open-interest profile

Spot 721.07 · call wall 730 (10,065 OI) · put wall 720 (2,623 OI) · pinned between the walls

753748743738733730 · CALL WALL728723720 · PUT WALL718713708703698693SPOT 721.07
Call OIPut OI
06

Earnings Ahead

Grouped by day, then by session — before the open, during hours (slot unconfirmed), after the close. Coverage is every reporter in roughly the top 1,000 by market cap (the large-cap index universe). 929 smaller names reporting in the window are excluded; the full list is available on request. Where a name is on our coverage list, the one-line read is ours.

No reporting company matches.

Reports that move something
NameReadWhenMkt capEPS est
Tuesday, August 11
Before open
SESea LimitedBefore open70.3B$0.78
CAHCardinal Health, Inc.Before open55.5B$2.42
ESLTElbit Systems Ltd.Before open39.3B$3.57
VGVenture Global, Inc.Before open35.4B$0.49
ONONOn Holding AGBefore open24.7B$0.38
TMETencent Music Entertainment GroupBefore open15.6B$0.23
ARMKAramarkBefore open14.6B$0.48
SFDSmithfield Foods, Inc.Before open9.6B$0.59
MIDDThe Middleby CorporationBefore open5.9B$2.28
During / TBD
SLABSilicon Laboratories, Inc.During / TBD7.2B$0.17
COGTCogent Biosciences, Inc.During / TBD7.1B($0.55)
AVALGrupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.During / TBD6.3B$0.12
ERASErasca, Inc.During / TBD6.2B($0.12)
MANEVeradermics, IncorporatedDuring / TBD4.6B($0.58)
PHIPLDT Inc.During / TBD4.3B—
TNGXTango Therapeutics, Inc.During / TBD4.0B($0.31)
After close
LITELumentum Holdings Inc.After close63.3B$2.62
CRWVCoreWeave, Inc.After close48.1B($1.67)
FNVFranco-Nevada CorporationAfter close46.4B$1.95
SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.After close18.9B$0.56
QNTQuantinuum Inc.After close14.8B($0.26)
CAVACAVA Group, Inc.After close7.2B$0.18
IFSIntercorp Financial Services Inc.After close6.7B$1.45
HRBH&R Block, Inc.After close5.8B$2.23
FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.After close4.1B($0.50)
Wednesday, August 12
Before open
NBISNebius Group N.V.Before open46.7B($0.67)
AMCRAmcor plcBefore open21.8B$1.20
PFGCPerformance Food Group CompanyBefore open17.9B$1.62
TRMBTrimble Inc.Before open13.6B$0.65
EATBrinker International, Inc.Before open9.8B$3.07
LQDALiquidia CorporationBefore open8.1B$0.70
FRVOFervo Energy CompanyBefore open7.0B($0.09)
GLBEGlobal-E Online Ltd.Before open6.9B$0.22
BETABeta Technologies, Inc.Before open5.5B($0.59)
MRXMarex Group LimitedBefore open4.5B$1.36
KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.Before open4.3B$1.06
During / TBD
TECHBio-Techne CorpDuring / TBD11.3B$0.46
UGPUltrapar Participacoes S.A.During / TBD6.7B$0.27
TKCTurkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri ASDuring / TBD4.8B—
TGSTransportadora De Gas Sa Ord BDuring / TBD4.4B$0.63
After close
CSCOCisco Systems, Inc.After close483.1B$0.99
COHRCoherent Corp.After close63.6B$1.43
CBRSCerebras Systems Inc.After close51.3B($0.21)
PAASPan American Silver Corp.After close21.8B$0.84
SUZSuzano S.A.After close10.3B$0.06
CAECAE IncAfter close8.6B$0.17
STNStantec IncAfter close8.4B$1.15
ENSEnerSysAfter close6.8B$2.82
ANDGAndersen Group Inc.After close5.5B($0.16)
EQPTEquipmentShare.com IncAfter close5.0B($0.10)
TBBBBBB Foods Inc.After close4.8B($0.17)
LFTOLiftoff Mobile, Inc.After close4.4B($0.52)
Thursday, August 13
Before open
BNBrookfield CorporationBefore open108.4B$0.63
JDJD.com, Inc.Before open45.7B$0.77
BSPBending Spoons S.p.A.Before open34.6B$0.27
TPRTapestry, Inc.Before open33.3B$1.26
ASNDAscendis Pharma A/SBefore open15.8B$0.78
PSPershing Square Inc.Before open14.9B$0.12
AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.Before open13.2B$2.92
MSGSMadison Square Garden Sports Corp.Before open9.4B$0.78
XEX-Energy, Inc.Before open8.4B($0.09)
BIRKBirkenstock Holding plcBefore open7.3B$0.87
LGNLegence Corp.Before open6.9B$0.26
FIGRFigure Technology Solutions, Inc.Before open6.4B$0.23
GDSGDS Holdings LimitedBefore open6.3B$1.35
MWHSOLV Energy, Inc.Before open5.8B$0.26
ONDSOndas IncBefore open5.3B($0.09)
ALHAlliance Laundry Holdings Inc.Before open5.2B$0.35
During / TBD
NUNu Holdings Ltd.During / TBD67.3B$0.20
KBKB Financial Group IncDuring / TBD43.3B$3.51
YPFYPF Sociedad AnonimaDuring / TBD20.0B$2.84
QXOQXO, Inc. During / TBD16.0B$0.09
BNTBrookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd.During / TBD15.1B—
AESThe AES CorporationDuring / TBD10.5B—
DDSDillard's, Inc.During / TBD9.9B$4.03
VIPSVipshop Holdings LimitedDuring / TBD7.4B$0.49
CIGComp En De Mn Cemig ADSDuring / TBD5.8B—
GLNGGolar LNG LimitedDuring / TBD5.2B$0.30
CELCCelcuity Inc.During / TBD4.4B($1.08)
SKESkeena Resources LimitedDuring / TBD4.1B($0.11)
After close
AMATApplied Materials, Inc.After close414.5B$3.36
BAPCredicorp Ltd.After close36.1B$7.20
BLTEBelite Bio, IncAfter close6.6B($0.73)
DLODLocal LimitedAfter close4.2B$0.20
Monday, August 17
Before open
HTHTH World Group LimitedBefore open13.2B$0.65
During / TBD
XPXP Inc.During / TBD8.4B$0.51
GRFSGrifols, S.A.During / TBD5.5B$0.27
After close
FNFabrinetAfter close18.9B$3.69
Tuesday, August 18
Before open
HDComp sales + housing turnover + pro vs DIY mixBefore open349.8B$4.71
BIDUBaidu, Inc.Before open37.3B$1.19
ASAmer Sports, Inc.Before open20.2B$0.10
KLARKlarna Group plcBefore open13.8B($0.07)
During / TBD
BHPBHP Group LimitedDuring / TBD229.4B—
After close
KEYSKeysight Technologies Inc.After close57.3B$2.16
ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.After close18.4B—
TOLToll Brothers, Inc.After close14.0B$2.90
JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc.After close11.0B$1.43
MRCYMercury Systems IncAfter close6.5B$0.20
Scenario — HD

Beat: Comp turning positive + Pro acceleration = 4-6% pop, lifts housing complex
Miss: Comp negative + ticket declining = 5-7% downside

Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).

Open drift calls
TickerReportedBiasConfidenceGap
UBER08-05Bearish61%−5.3%
ABNB08-06Bearish51%−0.6%
07

Insider Week

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.

Recent disclosed buying
FilerTickerTrade dateAmountType
Silverman David MAPH08-05$20,908,476EVP, Human Resources
Shellberg Jeffrey D.BWB08-05$3,366,736Insider
Sullivan DonCSW08-05$1,555,812EVP, Chief Strategy Officer
Blaylock Ronald EPFE08-05$998,821Director
Buckley Mortimer JPFE08-05$960,369Director
Harvey David CCVBF08-05$917,680EVP Chief Operating Officer
Mcwatt MichaelNTB08-05$741,319Managing Director, Cayman
Biglari, SardarLOCO08-05$676,00010% Owner
Prince MatthewNET08-05$177,47610b5-1
Briggs Andrew JFMAO08-05$104,280Insider
08

Options Flow

Our scanner watches the listed options tape in real time for sweeps and blocks hitting at the ask or the bid across the most liquid underlyings. This week it flagged 1,667 qualifying prints, the largest a $12,195,419 single order. The live tape runs on the dashboard during market hours.

09

Bottom Line

Positioning resets Monday. The rotation map says where the sponsorship is; the walls say where the friction is. Plan entries at the places those two agree, and let the calendar — not the tape — decide when to be flat.