October 21, 2026  ·  Le Dossier

Futures lean risk-on into the open

The pre-open brief: overnight markets, open-interest walls, early movers, insider filings and the prior session's options tape — one page, before the bell.

Published Wednesday Oct 21, 7:00 AM CTDaily edition7 min read
01

What matters this morning

The few things most likely to move your positions today, before anything else on this page.

S&P futures are higher at +0.91%. VIX at 17.33 prices elevated risk. SPY opens between the 741 put wall and the 775 call wall — those are the day’s magnets.

Everything below is generated from the same data our desk trades on: the overnight session, open-interest walls, the early movers, and the filings and options tape from the prior session.

02

How the desk's Tuesday trades closed

Every trade the desk closed yesterday, with the entry price and the best level it reached.

2 of 4 closed trades finished green on Tuesday.

Closed green on Tuesday, Oct 20
TradeBookEntryPeak
SPY 773C 2026-10-20daytrade$0.95+30%
QQQ 724C 2026-10-20daytrade$1.02+24%
03

Where futures moved overnight

Index futures against the prior settle, captured at 7:00 AM Central, with the yield and dollar backdrop that sets the tone for rate-sensitive groups.

Levels are the overnight session against the prior settle, captured at 7:00 AM Central. Treasury yield and the dollar set the tone for rate-sensitive groups before the equity open.

Overnight session
MarketLastChange
S&P futures7,774.00+0.91%
Nasdaq futures29,865.75+1.61%
Russell futures2,792.70+2.09%
VIX17.33+5.29%
10-yr yield5.117%−1.41%
Dollar index101.67−0.17%
WTI crude98.67−2.70%
Gold4,157.6−0.56%
Bitcoin83,388+2.46%
04

Where open interest concentrates

Where listed-options open interest concentrates. Price often stalls at the largest strikes and moves faster once it clears them; the hedging read is inferred from that OI, not measured.

Open-interest concentration from listed options. This is where contracts sit, not a measurement of dealer books: whether that OI pins or propels price depends on who holds it, which no public feed shows. Heavy call strikes have often acted as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes often mark where price has found buyers. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.

SPY — open-interest profile

Spot 770.63 · call wall 775 (7,385 OI) · put wall 741 (15,926 OI) · pinned between the walls

805800795790785780775 · CALL WALL770765760755750745741 · PUT WALL740SPOT 770.63
Call OIPut OI

QQQ — open-interest profile

Spot 721.63 · call wall 730 (6,190 OI) · put wall 700 (9,347 OI) · pinned between the walls

754749744739734730 · CALL WALL729724719714709704700 · PUT WALL699694SPOT 721.63
Call OIPut OI
05

What is already moving pre-market

Names gapping before the open and the volume behind the move — who is in play before the bell rather than after it.

The names moving on volume in the early tape. Gap continuation and gap fade both start from this list — what matters is which of these hold their opening range.

Gapping up
TickerPriceMove
AIMDW0.06+111.31%
SAIQ6.84+100.59%
SCAGW0.01+73.08%
SHFSW0.01+65.00%
COPL.WS0.07+60.55%
PRSO0.59+54.13%
ATGL6.93+52.64%
BRZE45.57+51.70%
Gapping down
TickerPriceMove
CJMB0.66−65.63%
SDSTW0.03−59.23%
ALPXW0.03−58.40%
BKHAU4.15−52.41%
BCAT.RT0.00−50.00%
BTBDW0.01−46.00%
GME.WS0.80−44.06%
SAGU.WS0.02−42.86%
06

Who reports today

Companies reporting before the open or after the close, with the estimates the street is working from.

Grouped by day, then by session — before the open, during hours (slot unconfirmed), after the close. Coverage is every reporter in roughly the top 1,000 by market cap (the large-cap index universe). 40 smaller names reporting in the window are excluded; the full list is available on request. Where a name is on our coverage list, the one-line read is ours.

No reporting company matches.

Reports that move something
NameReadWhenMkt capEPS est
Wednesday, October 21
Before open
PMPhilip Morris International IncBefore open313.4B$2.30
TMOThermo Fisher Scientific IncBefore open251.2B$6.40
ABTAbbott LaboratoriesBefore open180.1B$1.43
NEENextEra Energy, Inc.Before open163.1B$1.20
TAT&T Inc.Before open159.0B$0.61
DHRDanaher CorporationBefore open157.8B$1.92
CMECME Group Inc.Before open105.5B$2.98
ELVElevance Health, Inc.Before open93.3B$4.66
MCOMoody's CorporationBefore open83.4B$4.25
WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies CorporationBefore open48.4B$2.72
NTRSNorthern Trust CorporationBefore open30.1B$2.86
TDYTeledyne Technologies IncorporatedBefore open28.7B$6.15
SFStifel Financial CorporationBefore open10.0B$1.43
ONBOld National BancorpBefore open9.5B$0.66
LADLithia Motors, Inc.Before open6.4B$9.70
UNFUnifirst CorporationBefore open4.7B$2.09
After close
METAReels monetization + AI capex justify-it narrativeAfter close1,797.1B$4.98
TSLAAuto margins + FSD/robotaxi narrative drive the multipleAfter close1,453.7B$0.22
LRCXLam Research CorporationAfter close340.6B$2.17
SAPSAP SEAfter close277.7B$2.03
TXNTexas Instruments IncorporatedAfter close252.2B$2.40
IBMInternational Business Machines CorporationAfter close222.7B$2.88
CSXCSX CorporationAfter close88.7B$0.52
KMIKinder Morgan, Inc.After close74.4B$0.33
URIUnited Rentals, Inc.After close63.8B$13.83
WCNWaste Connections, Inc.After close42.3B$1.52
CCICrown Castle Inc.After close34.5B$1.16
LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp.After close24.6B$0.72
RSReliance, Inc.After close21.2B$6.76
PKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaAfter close21.1B$2.95
LUVSouthwest Airlines CompanyAfter close19.0B$0.61
MEDPMedpace Holdings, Inc.After close17.3B$4.45
ROLRollins, Inc.After close15.7B$0.34
PNFPPinnacle Financial Partners, Inc.After close14.2B$2.61
CACICACI International, Inc.After close13.6B$6.45
GGGGraco Inc.After close13.1B$0.82
GLGlobe Life Inc.After close12.9B$4.87
SEICSEI Investments CompanyAfter close12.6B$1.59
MOHMolina Healthcare IncAfter close11.0B$0.72
EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.After close10.6B$2.42
KNXKnight Transportation, Inc.After close10.3B$0.75
SSBSouthState Bank CorporationAfter close9.8B$2.39
ESIElement Solutions Inc.After close8.7B$0.48
FRFirst Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.After close7.7B$0.82
HXLHexcel CorporationAfter close6.9B$0.48
FAFFirst American Corporation (The)After close6.6B$1.85
WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.After close5.7B$1.31
EPRTEssential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.After close5.5B$0.50
SONSonoco Products CompanyAfter close4.9B$1.82
OIIOceaneering International, Inc.After close4.4B$0.58
FULTFulton Financial CorporationAfter close4.2B$0.55
Scenario — META

Beat: Ad revenue 18%+ growth with capex maintained (not raised) = 6-9% pop. Strong AI commentary helps.
Miss: Ad slowdown + capex raise = 8-12% downside, classic Meta volatility pattern. Reality Labs losses widening hurts.

Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).

Open drift calls
TickerReportedBiasConfidenceGap
BAC10-14Bearish60%−4.8%
NFLX10-20Bearish53%−1.7%
JPM10-13Bearish52%−0.9%
07

Which sectors are leading

Relative strength across the eleven sectors, so you can see where money is actually going rather than where the index went.

Health Care leads over the window at +2.36%; Technology brings up the rear at −0.27%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.

Sector performance
ETFSector1D5D21DYTD
XLVHealth Care+2.36%+3.36%+5.83%+15.6%
XLREReal Estate+1.74%+2.13%−0.26%+5.0%
XLFFinancials+1.18%+2.24%+1.72%+1.4%
XLUUtilities+1.18%+0.31%+3.33%−3.1%
XLYDiscretionary+0.91%+3.56%+2.81%−2.4%
XLPStaples+0.58%+1.96%+6.09%+12.9%
XLBMaterials+0.57%+3.14%+1.37%+11.1%
XLEEnergy+0.23%+0.50%+10.01%+48.9%
XLCCommunication+0.08%−0.54%−2.91%−5.7%
XLIIndustrials+0.07%−0.14%−2.03%+5.6%
XLKTechnology−0.27%−2.62%−5.51%+28.5%
08

What insiders and Congress bought

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries keep most of the historical edge.

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.

Recent disclosed buying
FilerTickerTrade dateAmountType
Eeme Energy Spv I, LlcSAFX10-16 · 5 days ago$142,083,45110% Owner
Bharathi SandeepMRVL10-16 · 5 days ago$865,86410b5-1
Evans John M.BEAM10-16 · 5 days ago$599,59510b5-1
Chaplin Ann CQCOM10-16 · 5 days ago$319,26810b5-1
Colis Peter GeorgeLIFE10-16 · 5 days ago$211,98610b5-1
Opaleye Management Inc.GRCE10-16 · 5 days ago$68,75810% Owner
Hassen Tyler LewisZONE10-16 · 5 days ago$55,150Chief Executive Officer
09

The levels that matter today

Prior-session high, low and close for the names on the desk's screen. These are the lines the tape reacts to.

Prior-session and five-day extremes. The prior high and low are the first reference points for the open; the five-day range frames the swing.

Reference levels
Index ETFLastPrior highPrior low5-day high5-day low
SPY769.05772.29764.25776.35760.64
QQQ717.63722.75710.39740.53707.23
IWM275.78276.90271.29276.90269.88
DIA524.36526.17518.46526.17512.96
10

What to do with all this

How the desk is framing the session, and the one thing that would change the plan.

The open belongs to whoever pre-committed. Futures are higher; the walls and prior-session levels above are the map. Take the trade only where a level and a catalyst agree — and size as if the first read is wrong.