October 14, 2026  ·  Le Dossier

A coiled open — futures flat

The pre-open brief: overnight markets, open-interest walls, early movers, insider filings and the prior session's options tape — one page, before the bell.

Published Wednesday Oct 14, 7:00 AM CTDaily edition6 min read
01

What matters this morning

The few things most likely to move your positions today, before anything else on this page.

S&P futures are flat at +0.09%. VIX at 15.34 prices calm. SPY opens between the 742 put wall and the 790 call wall — those are the day’s magnets.

Everything below is generated from the same data our desk trades on: the overnight session, open-interest walls, the early movers, and the filings and options tape from the prior session.

02

Where futures moved overnight

Index futures against the prior settle, captured at 7:00 AM Central, with the yield and dollar backdrop that sets the tone for rate-sensitive groups.

Levels are the overnight session against the prior settle, captured at 7:00 AM Central. Treasury yield and the dollar set the tone for rate-sensitive groups before the equity open.

Overnight session
MarketLastChange
S&P futures7,867.00+0.09%
Nasdaq futures30,745.00−1.17%
Russell futures2,803.90−0.64%
VIX15.34−0.45%
10-yr yield5.217%−1.14%
Dollar index102.21+0.00%
WTI crude95.92+4.43%
Gold4,160.7−1.32%
Bitcoin83,384+0.57%
03

Where open interest concentrates

Where listed-options open interest concentrates. Price often stalls at the largest strikes and moves faster once it clears them; the hedging read is inferred from that OI, not measured.

Open-interest concentration from listed options. This is where contracts sit, not a measurement of dealer books: whether that OI pins or propels price depends on who holds it, which no public feed shows. Heavy call strikes have often acted as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes often mark where price has found buyers. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.

SPY — open-interest profile

Spot 778.03 · call wall 790 (20,806 OI) · put wall 742 (7,454 OI) · pinned between the walls

810805800795790 · CALL WALL785780775770765760755750745SPOT 778.03
Call OIPut OI

QQQ — open-interest profile

Spot 743.50 · call wall 760 (5,871 OI) · put wall 730 (5,151 OI) · pinned between the walls

775770765760 · CALL WALL755750745740735730 · PUT WALL725720715SPOT 743.50
Call OIPut OI
04

What is already moving pre-market

Names gapping before the open and the volume behind the move — who is in play before the bell rather than after it.

The names moving on volume in the early tape. Gap continuation and gap fade both start from this list — what matters is which of these hold their opening range.

Gapping up
TickerPriceMove
TCRT3.03+188.57%
GGROW0.01+108.00%
CDTTW0.01+107.41%
PFAI4.70+80.08%
FLYE3.55+73.17%
BKYI2.83+71.52%
CINGW0.01+66.67%
JYD1.46+56.97%
Gapping down
TickerPriceMove
AXNX0.71−99.00%
WFF2.12−87.73%
TGL0.28−66.90%
EVEX.WS0.01−59.53%
LNKS0.97−57.10%
ASGI.RT0.01−56.25%
MNDR1.46−51.97%
SDAWW0.06−48.69%
05

Who reports today

Companies reporting before the open or after the close, with the estimates the street is working from.

Grouped by day, then by session — before the open, during hours (slot unconfirmed), after the close. Coverage is every reporter in roughly the top 1,000 by market cap (the large-cap index universe). 5 smaller names reporting in the window are excluded; the full list is available on request. Where a name is on our coverage list, the one-line read is ours.

No reporting company matches.

Reports that move something
NameReadWhenMkt capEPS est
Wednesday, October 14
Before open
ASMLASML Holding N.V.Before open674.6B$12.47
BACNII trajectory + consumer credit + capital returnBefore open381.7B$1.11
MSMorgan StanleyBefore open298.4B$2.83
BLKBlackRock, Inc.Before open167.9B$14.01
PGRProgressive Corporation (The)Before open128.1B$4.46
FASTFastenal CompanyBefore open59.1B$0.34
STTState Street CorporationBefore open48.1B$3.65
After close
HOMBHome BancShares, Inc.After close5.7B$0.63
Scenario — BAC

Beat: NII inflecting up + card credit benign + accelerated buyback = 4-6% pop
Miss: NII step-down + credit deterioration = 5-8% downside

Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).

Open drift calls
TickerReportedBiasConfidenceGap
PEP10-08Bullish57%+3.7%
WFC10-13Bearish56%−3.1%
JPM10-13Bearish52%−0.9%
06

Which sectors are leading

Relative strength across the eleven sectors, so you can see where money is actually going rather than where the index went.

Energy leads over the window at +1.70%; Health Care brings up the rear at −1.30%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.

Sector performance
ETFSector1D5D21DYTD
XLEEnergy+1.70%+5.95%+1.84%+47.1%
XLCCommunication+0.74%+0.87%−1.51%−4.0%
XLUUtilities+0.55%+1.66%+1.26%−3.1%
XLBMaterials+0.54%+1.48%−2.05%+7.8%
XLYDiscretionary+0.08%+0.88%+1.36%−5.1%
XLKTechnology−0.15%−2.63%+6.71%+35.9%
XLREReal Estate−0.25%+3.08%−2.92%+3.6%
XLPStaples−0.27%+3.02%+0.53%+8.3%
XLIIndustrials−0.29%+0.45%−0.14%+6.7%
XLFFinancials−0.42%+2.00%−3.57%−0.2%
XLVHealth Care−1.30%+0.56%+1.23%+9.1%
07

What insiders and Congress bought

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries keep most of the historical edge.

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.

Recent disclosed buying
FilerTickerTrade dateAmountType
Sahin UgurBNTX10-09 · 5 days ago$3,453,37210b5-1
Kamfar RaminBPRE10-09 · 5 days ago$2,253,171Director
Beard, Stephen W.CVSA10-09 · 5 days ago$610,29910b5-1
Eisen Anthony MathewXYZ10-09 · 5 days ago$454,50010b5-1
Clark KyleBETA10-09 · 5 days ago$206,62510b5-1
Sheppard Teresa GayleNTNX10-09 · 5 days ago$51,90210b5-1
Bawa AparnaPANW10-09 · 5 days ago$33,370Insider
08

Where the big options money went

Unusual options activity from the prior session — the sweeps and blocks large enough to suggest conviction rather than hedging.

Our scanner watches the listed options tape in real time for sweeps and blocks hitting at the ask or the bid across the most liquid underlyings. Tuesday it flagged 101,148 qualifying prints, the largest a $190,901,725 single order. The live tape runs on the dashboard during market hours.

09

The levels that matter today

Prior-session high, low and close for the names on the desk's screen. These are the lines the tape reacts to.

Prior-session and five-day extremes. The prior high and low are the first reference points for the open; the five-day range frames the swing.

Reference levels
Index ETFLastPrior highPrior low5-day high5-day low
SPY778.01778.75775.95779.42770.44
QQQ743.57744.20738.83758.30738.83
IWM276.70278.70275.47279.88274.52
DIA516.21522.81515.24522.81508.46
10

What to do with all this

How the desk is framing the session, and the one thing that would change the plan.

The open belongs to whoever pre-committed. Futures are flat; the walls and prior-session levels above are the map. Take the trade only where a level and a catalyst agree — and size as if the first read is wrong.