<span class="sec-sub">How the desk is framing the session, and the one thing that would change the plan.</span> · Le Dossier
Futures lean risk-on into the open
The pre-open brief: overnight markets, dealer positioning, early movers, insider filings and the prior session's options tape — one page, before the bell.
What matters this morning
The few things most likely to move your positions today, before anything else on this page.S&P futures are higher at +0.59%. VIX at 15.31 prices calm. SPY opens between the 750 put wall and the 793 call wall — those are the day’s magnets.
Everything below is generated from the same data our desk trades on: the overnight session, dealer positioning, the early movers, and the filings and options tape from the prior session.
Where futures moved overnight
Index futures against the prior settle, captured at 7:00 AM Central, with the yield and dollar backdrop that sets the tone for rate-sensitive groups.Levels are the overnight session against the prior settle, captured at 7:00 AM Central. Treasury yield and the dollar set the tone for rate-sensitive groups before the equity open.
| Market | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P futures | 7,777.25 | +0.59% |
| Nasdaq futures | 31,061.75 | +1.47% |
| Russell futures | 2,850.90 | +0.77% |
| VIX | 15.31 | −4.73% |
| 10-yr yield | 5.277% | +0.71% |
| Dollar index | 101.92 | +0.55% |
| WTI crude | 91.11 | +1.94% |
| Gold | 4,162.3 | −0.42% |
| Bitcoin | 85,304 | +2.09% |
Where dealer hedging pins price
The strikes where market makers must buy or sell to stay hedged. Price tends to stall at the large ones and move faster once it clears them.Dealer positioning from listed options open interest. Heavy call strikes act as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes mark where hedging flows tend to defend. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.
SPY — open-interest profile
Spot 769.72 · call wall 793 (9,442 OI) · put wall 750 (8,208 OI) · pinned between the walls
QQQ — open-interest profile
Spot 749.20 · call wall 755 (14,588 OI) · put wall 736 (25,633 OI) · pinned between the walls
What is already moving pre-market
Names gapping before the open and the volume behind the move — who is in play before the bell rather than after it.The names moving on volume in the early tape. Gap continuation and gap fade both start from this list — what matters is which of these hold their opening range.
| Ticker | Price | Move |
|---|---|---|
| HPAIW | 0.03 | +221.00% |
| AMOD | 3.49 | +198.29% |
| CYCUW | 0.04 | +146.62% |
| SDEV | 7.48 | +104.37% |
| AMODW | 0.03 | +104.29% |
| MN | 25.77 | +100.54% |
| FWACW | 0.04 | +84.26% |
| BCTXZ | 0.30 | +83.95% |
| Ticker | Price | Move |
|---|---|---|
| ASTLW | 0.00 | −62.63% |
| SBFMW | 0.03 | −52.10% |
| DRCT | 0.91 | −39.74% |
| RDACU | 6.10 | −38.69% |
| SMX | 3.82 | −37.99% |
| GRMLW | 0.50 | −35.06% |
| RDZNW | 0.07 | −31.79% |
| ARBEW | 0.02 | −30.83% |
Who reports today
Companies reporting before the open or after the close, with the estimates the street is working from.Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).
| Ticker | Reported | Bias | Confidence | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 09-24 | Bearish | 52% | −0.9% |
| NKE | 10-01 | Bearish | 51% | −0.7% |
Which sectors are leading
Relative strength across the eleven sectors, so you can see where money is actually going rather than where the index went.Discretionary leads over the window at +1.11%; Health Care brings up the rear at −0.02%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.
| ETF | Sector | 1D | 5D | 21D | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLY | Discretionary | +1.11% | +0.96% | −5.51% | −7.0% |
| XLK | Technology | +1.00% | +2.75% | +7.45% | +38.5% |
| XLI | Industrials | +0.76% | +0.71% | −2.64% | +7.6% |
| XLB | Materials | +0.70% | −1.17% | −7.14% | +6.0% |
| XLU | Utilities | +0.37% | +1.43% | −7.42% | −7.8% |
| XLC | Communication | +0.32% | −0.79% | −2.72% | −5.6% |
| XLE | Energy | +0.26% | +1.18% | −2.75% | +37.7% |
| XLRE | Real Estate | +0.25% | −1.34% | −7.78% | +1.1% |
| XLP | Staples | +0.24% | −2.13% | −5.52% | +3.7% |
| XLF | Financials | −0.01% | −1.35% | −8.66% | −2.7% |
| XLV | Health Care | −0.02% | −2.98% | −4.13% | +6.8% |
What insiders and Congress bought
The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries keep most of the historical edge.The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.
| Filer | Ticker | Trade date | Amount | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silverman David M | APH | 08-05 | $20,908,476 | EVP, Human Resources |
| Shellberg Jeffrey D. | BWB | 08-05 | $3,366,736 | Insider |
| Sullivan Don | CSW | 08-05 | $1,555,812 | EVP, Chief Strategy Officer |
| Blaylock Ronald E | PFE | 08-05 | $998,821 | Director |
| Buckley Mortimer J | PFE | 08-05 | $960,369 | Director |
| Harvey David C | CVBF | 08-05 | $917,680 | EVP Chief Operating Officer |
| Mcwatt Michael | NTB | 08-05 | $741,319 | Managing Director, Cayman |
Where the big options money went
Unusual options activity from the prior session — the sweeps and blocks large enough to suggest conviction rather than hedging.Our scanner watches the listed options tape in real time for sweeps and blocks hitting at the ask or the bid across the most liquid underlyings. Friday it flagged 52,831 qualifying prints, the largest a $16,020,002 single order. The live tape runs on the dashboard during market hours.
The levels that matter today
Prior-session high, low and close for the names on the desk's screen. These are the lines the tape reacts to.Prior-session and five-day extremes. The prior high and low are the first reference points for the open; the five-day range frames the swing.
| Index ETF | Last | Prior high | Prior low | 5-day high | 5-day low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 769.64 | 772.65 | 767.15 | 772.65 | 758.79 |
| QQQ | 749.58 | 754.54 | 747.53 | 754.54 | 731.63 |
| IWM | 281.52 | 283.57 | 280.89 | 283.57 | 275.45 |
| DIA | 511.10 | 513.06 | 508.69 | 517.04 | 504.70 |
What to do with all this
How the desk is framing the session, and the one thing that would change the plan.The open belongs to whoever pre-committed. Futures are higher; the walls and prior-session levels above are the map. Take the trade only where a level and a catalyst agree — and size as if the first read is wrong.