<span class="sec-sub">How the desk is framing the session, and the one thing that would change the plan.</span>  ·  Le Dossier

A coiled open — futures flat

The pre-open brief: overnight markets, dealer positioning, early movers, insider filings and the prior session's options tape — one page, before the bell.

Published Thursday Oct 1, 7:00 AM CTDaily edition6 min read
01

What matters this morning

The few things most likely to move your positions today, before anything else on this page.

S&P futures are flat at −0.06%. VIX at 16.40 prices calm. SPY opens between the 765 put wall and the 770 call wall — those are the day’s magnets.

Everything below is generated from the same data our desk trades on: the overnight session, dealer positioning, the early movers, and the filings and options tape from the prior session.

02

How the desk's Wednesday trades closed

Every trade the desk closed yesterday, with the entry price and the best level it reached.

No closed winners on Wednesday Sep 30.

03

Where futures moved overnight

Index futures against the prior settle, captured at 7:00 AM Central, with the yield and dollar backdrop that sets the tone for rate-sensitive groups.

Levels are the overnight session against the prior settle, captured at 7:00 AM Central. Treasury yield and the dollar set the tone for rate-sensitive groups before the equity open.

Overnight session
MarketLastChange
S&P futures7,742.25−0.06%
Nasdaq futures30,896.00+1.08%
Russell futures2,824.80−0.54%
VIX16.40+10.29%
10-yr yield5.293%+2.54%
Dollar index101.69+0.48%
WTI crude91.78−0.89%
Gold4,212.0+1.05%
Bitcoin83,882−0.68%
04

Where dealer hedging pins price

The strikes where market makers must buy or sell to stay hedged. Price tends to stall at the large ones and move faster once it clears them.

Dealer positioning from listed options open interest. Heavy call strikes act as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes mark where hedging flows tend to defend. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.

SPY — open-interest profile

Spot 763.61 · call wall 770 (17,498 OI) · put wall 765 (7,499 OI) · below its put wall — hedging flows point lower

797792787782777772770 · CALL WALL767765 · PUT WALL762757752747742737732SPOT 763.61
Call OIPut OI

QQQ — open-interest profile

Spot 740.91 · call wall 725 (36,398 OI) · put wall 740 (5,057 OI) · trading above its call wall — extended

774769764759754749744740 · PUT WALL739734729725 · CALL WALL724719714709SPOT 740.91
Call OIPut OI
05

What is already moving pre-market

Names gapping before the open and the volume behind the move — who is in play before the bell rather than after it.

The names moving on volume in the early tape. Gap continuation and gap fade both start from this list — what matters is which of these hold their opening range.

Gapping up
TickerPriceMove
NIVFW0.02+148.91%
NIVF0.17+133.33%
TGE1.55+86.75%
GOW3.18+75.70%
EURKR0.41+62.14%
CMCT2.93+52.60%
TNON4.09+49.82%
RMSGW0.03+45.42%
Gapping down
TickerPriceMove
FFR1.31−96.45%
ARBEW0.02−69.36%
NTRBW0.55−68.21%
LQDA30.26−57.19%
PIIIW0.01−56.82%
BTBDW0.02−53.31%
ACONW0.03−49.00%
ASTLW0.01−48.98%
06

Who reports today

Companies reporting before the open or after the close, with the estimates the street is working from.

Grouped by day, then by session — before the open, during hours (slot unconfirmed), after the close. Coverage is every reporter in roughly the top 1,000 by market cap (the large-cap index universe). 11 smaller names reporting in the window are excluded; the full list is available on request. Where a name is on our coverage list, the one-line read is ours.

No reporting company matches.

Reports that move something
NameReadWhenMkt capEPS est
Thursday, October 1
Before open
ACNAccenture plcBefore open118.2B$3.19
MKCMcCormick & Company, IncorporatedBefore open13.0B$0.75
MKC.VMcCormick & Company, IncorporatedBefore open13.0B—
AYIAcuity Inc.Before open9.2B$5.27
During / TBD
VFSVinFast Auto Ltd.During / TBD7.4B—
After close
NKENKE — quarterly resultsAfter close53.2B$0.43
Scenario — NKE

Beat: Beat + raised guide → 3-7% pop typical
Miss: Miss + soft guide → 5-10% downside typical

Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).

Open drift calls
TickerReportedBiasConfidenceGap
COST09-24Bearish52%−0.9%
07

Which sectors are leading

Relative strength across the eleven sectors, so you can see where money is actually going rather than where the index went.

Technology leads over the window at +0.45%; Staples brings up the rear at −1.53%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.

Sector performance
ETFSector1D5D21DYTD
XLKTechnology+0.45%+0.33%+6.36%+35.4%
XLEEnergy−0.11%−1.80%−5.09%+34.7%
XLYDiscretionary−0.26%−1.33%−4.99%−8.0%
XLCCommunication−0.43%−2.64%+0.08%−5.1%
XLUUtilities−0.71%+0.15%−7.38%−8.7%
XLBMaterials−0.79%−2.01%−6.52%+5.6%
XLREReal Estate−1.06%−1.80%−7.12%+1.3%
XLFFinancials−1.22%−2.16%−6.75%−2.9%
XLIIndustrials−1.30%−1.15%−3.37%+5.7%
XLVHealth Care−1.34%−0.85%−1.88%+8.3%
XLPStaples−1.53%−1.38%−5.49%+3.7%
08

What insiders and Congress bought

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries keep most of the historical edge.

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.

Recent disclosed buying
FilerTickerTrade dateAmountType
Silverman David MAPH08-05$20,908,476EVP, Human Resources
Shellberg Jeffrey D.BWB08-05$3,366,736Insider
Sullivan DonCSW08-05$1,555,812EVP, Chief Strategy Officer
Blaylock Ronald EPFE08-05$998,821Director
Buckley Mortimer JPFE08-05$960,369Director
Harvey David CCVBF08-05$917,680EVP Chief Operating Officer
Mcwatt MichaelNTB08-05$741,319Managing Director, Cayman
09

Where the big options money went

Unusual options activity from the prior session — the sweeps and blocks large enough to suggest conviction rather than hedging.

Our scanner watches the listed options tape in real time for sweeps and blocks hitting at the ask or the bid across the most liquid underlyings. Wednesday it flagged 893 qualifying prints, the largest a $95,060,000 single order. The live tape runs on the dashboard during market hours.

10

The levels that matter today

Prior-session high, low and close for the names on the desk's screen. These are the lines the tape reacts to.

Prior-session and five-day extremes. The prior high and low are the first reference points for the open; the five-day range frames the swing.

Reference levels
Index ETFLastPrior highPrior low5-day high5-day low
SPY762.63769.41762.18772.28762.18
QQQ739.77745.10739.46745.92731.63
IWM277.89280.48277.86283.52277.41
DIA508.55514.16508.34517.92508.34
11

What to do with all this

How the desk is framing the session, and the one thing that would change the plan.

The open belongs to whoever pre-committed. Futures are flat; the walls and prior-session levels above are the map. Take the trade only where a level and a catalyst agree — and size as if the first read is wrong.