August 27, 2026  ·  Price Theory Research

Futures lean risk-on into the open

The pre-open brief: overnight markets, dealer positioning, early movers, insider filings and the prior session's options tape — one page, before the bell.

Published Thursday Aug 27, 7:00 AM CTLe Dossier — Note5 min read
01

TL;DR

S&P futures are higher at +0.60%. VIX at 15.00 prices calm. SPY opens between the 765 put wall and the 769 call wall — those are the day’s magnets.

Everything below is generated from the same data our desk trades on: the overnight session, dealer positioning, the early movers, and the filings and options tape from the prior session.

02

Desk — Wednesday

No closed winners on Wednesday Aug 26.

03

Overnight & Futures

Levels are the overnight session against the prior settle, captured at 7:00 AM Central. Treasury yield and the dollar set the tone for rate-sensitive groups before the equity open.

Overnight session
MarketLastChange
S&P futures7,715.50+0.60%
Nasdaq futures29,520.50+1.42%
Russell futures3,008.30+0.22%
VIX15.00−0.86%
10-yr yield4.664%−0.68%
Dollar index99.25+0.26%
WTI crude82.59−2.85%
Gold4,648.6+0.17%
Bitcoin79,476+2.21%
04

Dealer Positioning

Dealer positioning from listed options open interest. Heavy call strikes act as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes mark where hedging flows tend to defend. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.

SPY — open-interest profile

Spot 766.42 · call wall 769 (5,985 OI) · put wall 765 (38,944 OI) · pinned between the walls

800795790785780775770769 · CALL WALL765 · PUT WALL760755750745740735SPOT 766.42
Call OIPut OI

QQQ — open-interest profile

Spot 712.66 · call wall 730 (7,770 OI) · put wall 700 (4,298 OI) · pinned between the walls

744739734730 · CALL WALL729724719714709704700 · PUT WALL699694689684SPOT 712.66
Call OIPut OI
05

Early Movers

The names moving on volume in the early tape. Gap continuation and gap fade both start from this list — what matters is which of these hold their opening range.

Gapping up
TickerPriceMove
KLXER0.13+269.32%
CRE6.81+164.98%
CAPA24.90+133.15%
ASTLW0.01+106.25%
YYGH2.12+84.35%
XPON9.17+74.00%
PRENW0.01+64.20%
ANGHW0.01+62.16%
Gapping down
TickerPriceMove
GRML5.04−48.09%
FLYX.WS0.10−44.22%
TNONW0.01−39.29%
WETO17.28−38.96%
AIXI0.80−38.58%
ARQQW0.01−37.50%
DFSCW0.02−33.91%
SAIHW0.03−33.73%
06

Earnings Radar

Grouped by day, then by session — before the open, during hours (slot unconfirmed), after the close. Coverage is every reporter in roughly the top 1,000 by market cap (the large-cap index universe). 36 smaller names reporting in the window are excluded; the full list is available on request. Where a name is on our coverage list, the one-line read is ours.

No reporting company matches.

Reports that move something
NameReadWhenMkt capEPS est
Thursday, August 27
Before open
RYRoyal Bank Of CanadaBefore open287.8B$2.89
TDToronto Dominion Bank (The)Before open196.7B$1.74
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceBefore open108.2B$1.80
DGDollar General CorporationBefore open27.0B$2
DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.Before open25.8B$1.14
BURLBurlington Stores, Inc.Before open19.8B$2.18
BBYBest Buy Co., Inc.Before open18.0B$1.37
HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company LimitedBefore open14.6B—
HRLHormel Foods CorporationBefore open13.1B$0.36
HQYHealthEquity, Inc.Before open8.8B$0.99
BILIBilibili Inc.Before open6.9B$0.13
CMBTCMB.TECH NVBefore open5.7B—
After close
MRVLCustom AI silicon + data center networkingAfter close210.5B$0.65
ADSKAutodesk, Inc.After close53.0B$2.35
WDAYWorkday, Inc.After close48.0B$1.26
AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.After close26.1B$0.33
ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.After close23.1B$6.21
RBRKRubrik, Inc.After close19.1B($0.34)
IRENIREN LimitedAfter close15.1B($0.42)
ESTCElastic N.V.After close8.4B($0.15)
GAPGap, Inc. (The)After close7.3B$0.50
SSentinelOne, Inc.After close7.0B($0.13)
Scenario — MRVL

Beat: AI custom silicon ramping + data center strong = 8-15% pop, lifts AI semis basket
Miss: Custom silicon ramp slower than expected = 12-20% drawdown — high-beta AI exposure

Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).

Open drift calls
TickerReportedBiasConfidenceGap
WMT08-20Bearish68%−9.2%
TGT08-19Bullish59%+4.3%
INTU08-25Bearish57%−3.4%
07

Sector Posture

Industrials leads over the window at +1.09%; Health Care brings up the rear at −0.98%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.

Sector performance
ETFSector1D5D21DYTD
XLIIndustrials+1.09%+0.33%+2.12%+14.2%
XLKTechnology+0.64%−0.12%+9.84%+26.7%
XLEEnergy+0.59%−2.09%+6.46%+36.8%
XLUUtilities+0.44%−0.64%−3.14%+0.7%
XLBMaterials+0.12%+2.35%+3.71%+16.3%
XLFFinancials−0.09%+2.30%+2.77%+6.0%
XLPStaples−0.25%+1.11%−1.19%+11.1%
XLCCommunication−0.49%+1.73%+2.78%−3.7%
XLREReal Estate−0.60%+0.01%−1.89%+11.7%
XLYDiscretionary−0.68%+0.40%+4.92%−1.1%
XLVHealth Care−0.98%+0.66%+4.38%+11.6%
08

Insider Tape

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.

Recent disclosed buying
FilerTickerTrade dateAmountType
Silverman David MAPH08-05$20,908,476EVP, Human Resources
Shellberg Jeffrey D.BWB08-05$3,366,736Insider
Sullivan DonCSW08-05$1,555,812EVP, Chief Strategy Officer
Blaylock Ronald EPFE08-05$998,821Director
Buckley Mortimer JPFE08-05$960,369Director
Harvey David CCVBF08-05$917,680EVP Chief Operating Officer
Mcwatt MichaelNTB08-05$741,319Managing Director, Cayman
09

Options Flow Recap

Our scanner watches the listed options tape in real time for sweeps and blocks hitting at the ask or the bid across the most liquid underlyings. Wednesday it flagged 666 qualifying prints, the largest a $3,947,872 single order. The live tape runs on the dashboard during market hours.

10

Levels

Prior-session and five-day extremes. The prior high and low are the first reference points for the open; the five-day range frames the swing.

Reference levels
Index ETFLastPrior highPrior low5-day high5-day low
SPY766.08767.35763.93768.15762.04
QQQ711.37713.02707.97715.67702.70
IWM298.93299.95298.13300.33297.04
DIA534.23535.95533.31536.52527.20
11

Bottom Line

The open belongs to whoever pre-committed. Futures are higher; the walls and prior-session levels above are the map. Take the trade only where a level and a catalyst agree — and size as if the first read is wrong.