August 26, 2026 · Price Theory Research
Futures point lower into the open
The pre-open brief: overnight markets, dealer positioning, early movers, insider filings and the prior session's options tape — one page, before the bell.
TL;DR
S&P futures are lower at −0.10%. VIX at 15.68 prices calm. SPY opens between the 754 put wall and the 770 call wall — those are the day’s magnets.
Everything below is generated from the same data our desk trades on: the overnight session, dealer positioning, the early movers, and the filings and options tape from the prior session.
Desk — Tuesday
2 of 2 closed trades finished green on Tuesday.
| Trade | Book | Entry | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY 765C 2026-08-25 | daytrade | $0.63 | +33% |
| TSLA 362.5C 2026-08-26 | daytrade | $1.04 | +32% |
Overnight & Futures
Levels are the overnight session against the prior settle, captured at 7:00 AM Central. Treasury yield and the dollar set the tone for rate-sensitive groups before the equity open.
| Market | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P futures | 7,683.50 | −0.10% |
| Nasdaq futures | 29,194.75 | −0.66% |
| Russell futures | 3,011.80 | −0.34% |
| VIX | 15.68 | −2.06% |
| 10-yr yield | 4.639% | −0.30% |
| Dollar index | 99.00 | +0.21% |
| WTI crude | 80.52 | −7.51% |
| Gold | 4,674.0 | +1.08% |
| Bitcoin | 78,488 | +1.82% |
Dealer Positioning
Dealer positioning from listed options open interest. Heavy call strikes act as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes mark where hedging flows tend to defend. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.
SPY — open-interest profile
Spot 765.85 · call wall 770 (4,317 OI) · put wall 754 (4,180 OI) · pinned between the walls
QQQ — open-interest profile
Spot 710.73 · call wall 716 (6,852 OI) · put wall 705 (4,389 OI) · pinned between the walls
Early Movers
The names moving on volume in the early tape. Gap continuation and gap fade both start from this list — what matters is which of these hold their opening range.
| Ticker | Price | Move |
|---|---|---|
| GFR.RT | 1.12 | +558.82% |
| AIXI | 1.31 | +186.28% |
| BTA | 24.65 | +153.57% |
| BCCQW | 1.11 | +146.61% |
| NCPL | 0.58 | +126.83% |
| DAIC | 3.88 | +124.28% |
| PMI | 9.55 | +86.16% |
| JEM | 6.79 | +77.88% |
| Ticker | Price | Move |
|---|---|---|
| GDEVW | 0.00 | −86.21% |
| HUMAW | 0.00 | −78.05% |
| FLZH | 0.10 | −56.54% |
| OSRH | 0.12 | −53.40% |
| FVN | 9.43 | −52.47% |
| ASTLW | 0.00 | −52.00% |
| OSRHW | 0.03 | −44.44% |
| FTRA.WS | 0.58 | −39.58% |
Earnings Radar
Grouped by day, then by session — before the open, during hours (slot unconfirmed), after the close. Coverage is every reporter in roughly the top 1,000 by market cap (the large-cap index universe). 34 smaller names reporting in the window are excluded; the full list is available on request. Where a name is on our coverage list, the one-line read is ours.
No reporting company matches.
| Name | Read | When | Mkt cap | EPS est |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, August 26 | ||||
| Before open | ||||
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | Before open | 28.0B | $2.05 |
| SJM | The J.M. Smucker Company | Before open | 13.5B | $2.21 |
| DY | Dycom Industries, Inc. | Before open | 11.4B | $4.36 |
| LI | Li Auto Inc. | Before open | 11.3B | ($0.01) |
| DCI | Donaldson Company, Inc. | Before open | 10.7B | $1.12 |
| ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch Company | Before open | 5.0B | $1.95 |
| During / TBD | ||||
| TCOM | Trip.com Group Limited | During / TBD | 29.0B | $0.84 |
| TGS | Transportadora De Gas Sa Ord B | During / TBD | 4.3B | $0.63 |
| After close | ||||
| NVDA | Data Center revenue + Q2 guide = the entire story | After close | 5,045.2B | $2.09 |
| CRWD | CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. — Software - Infrastructure | After close | 194.2B | $0.05 |
| CRM | Subscription growth + Agentforce monetization + margin | After close | 171.2B | $2.35 |
| SNPS | Synopsys, Inc. | After close | 75.5B | $2.66 |
| A | Agilent Technologies, Inc. | After close | 43.3B | $1.48 |
| VEEV | Veeva Systems Inc. | After close | 40.5B | $1.62 |
| P | Everpure, Inc. | After close | 33.4B | $0.19 |
| HPQ | HP Inc. | After close | 26.1B | $0.74 |
| OKTA | Okta, Inc. | After close | 22.8B | $0.44 |
| NTNX | Nutanix, Inc. | After close | 18.0B | $0.19 |
| URBN | Urban Outfitters, Inc. | After close | 6.5B | $1.72 |
Beat: Data Center beat + Q2 guide $44B+ + clean Blackwell commentary = 6-12% pop, lifts entire AI-infra basket (AVGO, MU, ANET, AMD)
Miss: Sub-$40B data center or guide cut = 8-15% selloff, brutal across AI complex. Margin compression alone could drop the stock 5%.
Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).
| Ticker | Reported | Bias | Confidence | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 08-20 | Bearish | 68% | −9.2% |
| TGT | 08-19 | Bullish | 59% | +4.3% |
| LOW | 08-19 | Bullish | 54% | +2.0% |
Sector Posture
Technology leads over the window at +0.94%; Energy brings up the rear at −1.69%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.
| ETF | Sector | 1D | 5D | 21D | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | Technology | +0.94% | −1.03% | +6.24% | +25.9% |
| XLC | Communication | +0.75% | +1.65% | +3.21% | −3.2% |
| XLV | Health Care | +0.34% | −0.24% | +4.78% | +12.7% |
| XLU | Utilities | +0.21% | −1.65% | −4.87% | +0.2% |
| XLF | Financials | +0.16% | +1.41% | +1.25% | +6.1% |
| XLB | Materials | +0.06% | +2.06% | +2.43% | +16.2% |
| XLRE | Real Estate | +0.02% | +0.79% | −1.39% | +12.4% |
| XLY | Discretionary | −0.29% | −0.55% | +4.84% | −0.4% |
| XLI | Industrials | −0.34% | −1.95% | −2.25% | +12.9% |
| XLP | Staples | −1.07% | −0.02% | −0.62% | +11.3% |
| XLE | Energy | −1.69% | −2.36% | +7.85% | +36.0% |
Insider Tape
The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.
| Filer | Ticker | Trade date | Amount | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silverman David M | APH | 08-05 | $20,908,476 | EVP, Human Resources |
| Shellberg Jeffrey D. | BWB | 08-05 | $3,366,736 | Insider |
| Sullivan Don | CSW | 08-05 | $1,555,812 | EVP, Chief Strategy Officer |
| Blaylock Ronald E | PFE | 08-05 | $998,821 | Director |
| Buckley Mortimer J | PFE | 08-05 | $960,369 | Director |
| Harvey David C | CVBF | 08-05 | $917,680 | EVP Chief Operating Officer |
| Mcwatt Michael | NTB | 08-05 | $741,319 | Managing Director, Cayman |
Options Flow Recap
Our scanner watches the listed options tape in real time for sweeps and blocks hitting at the ask or the bid across the most liquid underlyings. Tuesday it flagged 561 qualifying prints, the largest a $4,087,800 single order. The live tape runs on the dashboard during market hours.
Levels
Prior-session and five-day extremes. The prior high and low are the first reference points for the open; the five-day range frames the swing.
| Index ETF | Last | Prior high | Prior low | 5-day high | 5-day low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 765.91 | 766.78 | 763.05 | 772.47 | 762.04 |
| QQQ | 710.72 | 714.04 | 707.45 | 721.50 | 702.70 |
| IWM | 299.23 | 299.78 | 297.97 | 303.41 | 297.04 |
| DIA | 535.24 | 536.52 | 533.19 | 536.68 | 527.20 |
Bottom Line
The open belongs to whoever pre-committed. Futures are lower; the walls and prior-session levels above are the map. Take the trade only where a level and a catalyst agree — and size as if the first read is wrong.