August 25, 2026  ·  Price Theory Research

Futures lean risk-on into the open

The pre-open brief: overnight markets, dealer positioning, early movers, insider filings and the prior session's options tape — one page, before the bell.

Published Tuesday Aug 25, 7:00 AM CTLe Dossier — Note5 min read
01

TL;DR

S&P futures are higher at +0.55%. VIX at 15.75 prices calm. SPY opens between the 765 put wall and the 772 call wall — those are the day’s magnets.

Everything below is generated from the same data our desk trades on: the overnight session, dealer positioning, the early movers, and the filings and options tape from the prior session.

02

Desk — Monday

3 of 3 closed trades finished green on Monday.

Closed green — Monday Aug 24
TradeBookEntryPeak
QQQ 706C 2026-08-24daytrade$0.71+34%
SPY 765C 2026-08-24daytrade$0.53+23%
TSLA 357.5C 2026-08-24daytrade$0.86+21%
03

Overnight & Futures

Levels are the overnight session against the prior settle, captured at 7:00 AM Central. Treasury yield and the dollar set the tone for rate-sensitive groups before the equity open.

Overnight session
MarketLastChange
S&P futures7,704.50+0.55%
Nasdaq futures29,380.25+0.27%
Russell futures3,022.20+0.77%
VIX15.75+5.78%
10-yr yield4.704%−0.04%
Dollar index99.01+0.11%
WTI crude81.84−6.82%
Gold4,700.7+4.08%
Bitcoin79,114+0.99%
04

Dealer Positioning

Dealer positioning from listed options open interest. Heavy call strikes act as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes mark where hedging flows tend to defend. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.

SPY — open-interest profile

Spot 763.65 · call wall 772 (11,852 OI) · put wall 765 (14,178 OI) · below its put wall — hedging flows point lower

798793788783778773772 · CALL WALL768765 · PUT WALL763758753748743738733SPOT 763.65
Call OIPut OI

QQQ — open-interest profile

Spot 706.31 · call wall 740 (6,032 OI) · put wall 700 (3,691 OI) · pinned between the walls

738733728723718713708703700 · PUT WALL698693688683678SPOT 706.31
Call OIPut OI
05

Early Movers

The names moving on volume in the early tape. Gap continuation and gap fade both start from this list — what matters is which of these hold their opening range.

Gapping up
TickerPriceMove
DAICW0.01+380.00%
DAIC1.73+306.10%
GIPR0.75+150.67%
TLSIW1.14+103.57%
XPON6.20+80.49%
SDOT23.16+75.72%
LUCY1.12+63.77%
APACR0.13+62.30%
Gapping down
TickerPriceMove
FLZH0.22−77.20%
FBDT2.05−48.62%
DFNS11.01−46.58%
BIAFW0.08−35.54%
SDSTW0.09−35.53%
SWAGW0.01−35.00%
OSPRW0.30−33.18%
PARAW0.01−31.73%
06

Earnings Radar

Grouped by day, then by session — before the open, during hours (slot unconfirmed), after the close. Coverage is every reporter in roughly the top 1,000 by market cap (the large-cap index universe). 32 smaller names reporting in the window are excluded; the full list is available on request. Where a name is on our coverage list, the one-line read is ours.

No reporting company matches.

Reports that move something
NameReadWhenMkt capEPS est
Tuesday, August 25
Before open
BMOBank Of MontrealBefore open122.9B$2.71
BNSBank of Nova Scotia (The)Before open107.4B$1.53
DKSDick's Sporting Goods IncBefore open16.4B$3.78
BZKANZHUN LIMITEDBefore open7.4B$0.25
VIPSVipshop Holdings LimitedBefore open7.0B$0.42
During / TBD
GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A.During / TBD6.7B$0.90
After close
INTUIntuit Inc.After close100.4B$2.12
HEIHeico CorporationAfter close49.6B$1.51
HEI.AHeico CorporationAfter close49.6B—
ZMZoom Communications, Inc.After close31.5B$1.01
SMTCSemtech CorporationAfter close11.6B$0.41
BOXBox, Inc.After close4.6B$0.09

Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).

Open drift calls
TickerReportedBiasConfidenceGap
WMT08-20Bearish68%−9.2%
TGT08-19Bullish59%+4.3%
LOW08-19Bullish54%+2.0%
07

Sector Posture

Staples leads over the window at +1.69%; Technology brings up the rear at −1.79%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.

Sector performance
ETFSector1D5D21DYTD
XLPStaples+1.69%+2.19%+2.41%+12.5%
XLFFinancials+1.23%+0.62%+2.29%+5.9%
XLUUtilities+1.06%−1.82%−5.37%+0.1%
XLCCommunication+0.84%+1.65%+4.34%−3.9%
XLREReal Estate+0.64%+1.61%−0.90%+12.3%
XLYDiscretionary+0.26%+1.63%+6.70%−0.1%
XLBMaterials+0.10%+3.47%+4.24%+16.1%
XLVHealth Care+0.04%+2.93%+6.92%+12.3%
XLIIndustrials−0.68%−2.46%−2.28%+13.3%
XLEEnergy−0.77%−0.84%+8.15%+38.3%
XLKTechnology−1.79%−2.99%+3.29%+24.8%
08

Insider Tape

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.

Recent disclosed buying
FilerTickerTrade dateAmountType
Silverman David MAPH08-05$20,908,476EVP, Human Resources
Shellberg Jeffrey D.BWB08-05$3,366,736Insider
Sullivan DonCSW08-05$1,555,812EVP, Chief Strategy Officer
Blaylock Ronald EPFE08-05$998,821Director
Buckley Mortimer JPFE08-05$960,369Director
Harvey David CCVBF08-05$917,680EVP Chief Operating Officer
Mcwatt MichaelNTB08-05$741,319Managing Director, Cayman
09

Options Flow Recap

Our scanner watches the listed options tape in real time for sweeps and blocks hitting at the ask or the bid across the most liquid underlyings. Monday it flagged 766 qualifying prints, the largest a $3,763,425 single order. The live tape runs on the dashboard during market hours.

10

Levels

Prior-session and five-day extremes. The prior high and low are the first reference points for the open; the five-day range frames the swing.

Reference levels
Index ETFLastPrior highPrior low5-day high5-day low
SPY763.47765.22762.08772.47762.04
QQQ706.32709.79702.70722.13702.70
IWM297.97299.74297.40303.41297.04
DIA533.65534.48531.83536.68527.20
11

Bottom Line

The open belongs to whoever pre-committed. Futures are higher; the walls and prior-session levels above are the map. Take the trade only where a level and a catalyst agree — and size as if the first read is wrong.