August 11, 2026  ·  Price Theory Research

Futures lean risk-on into the open

The pre-open brief: overnight markets, dealer positioning, early movers, insider filings and the prior session's options tape — one page, before the bell.

Published Tuesday Aug 11, 11:26 AM CTLe Dossier — Note5 min read
01

TL;DR

S&P futures are higher at +0.43%. VIX at 15.36 prices calm. SPY opens between the 750 put wall and the 780 call wall — those are the day’s magnets.

Everything below is generated from the same data our desk trades on: the overnight session, dealer positioning, the early movers, and the filings and options tape from the prior session.

02

Overnight & Futures

Levels are the overnight session against the prior settle, captured at 11:26 AM Central. Treasury yield and the dollar set the tone for rate-sensitive groups before the equity open.

Overnight session
MarketLastChange
S&P futures7,768.00+0.43%
Nasdaq futures29,664.50+0.60%
Russell futures3,039.70+1.02%
VIX15.36−2.85%
10-yr yield4.684%+1.45%
Dollar index99.82−0.15%
WTI crude83.09+7.50%
Gold4,439.5+4.66%
Bitcoin63,552−2.05%
03

Dealer Positioning

Dealer positioning from listed options open interest. Heavy call strikes act as magnets-then-ceilings when spot trades below them; heavy put strikes mark where hedging flows tend to defend. The walls are the largest single-strike concentrations near the money.

SPY — open-interest profile

Spot 772.82 · call wall 780 (8,804 OI) · put wall 750 (12,637 OI) · pinned between the walls

805800795790785780 · CALL WALL775770765760755750 · PUT WALL745740SPOT 772.82
Call OIPut OI

QQQ — open-interest profile

Spot 721.07 · call wall 730 (10,065 OI) · put wall 720 (2,623 OI) · pinned between the walls

753748743738733730 · CALL WALL728723720 · PUT WALL718713708703698693SPOT 721.07
Call OIPut OI
04

Early Movers

The names moving on volume in the early tape. Gap continuation and gap fade both start from this list — what matters is which of these hold their opening range.

Gapping up
TickerPriceMove
SCKT2.13+451.67%
HUBCZ0.02+223.33%
JWEL4.00+158.06%
BCARU7.32+140.00%
STKH4.30+128.72%
ASTLW0.01+85.71%
SABSW0.02+78.57%
ACHR.WS0.07+61.11%
Gapping down
TickerPriceMove
SION4.50−91.18%
TENX1.38−89.77%
BBLGW3.50−54.55%
ACH1.40−50.00%
ANSCW0.00−48.57%
MNTSW0.00−47.83%
GDEVW0.00−46.43%
AIRS2.75−45.11%
05

Earnings Radar

Grouped by day, then by session — before the open, during hours (slot unconfirmed), after the close. Coverage is every reporter in roughly the top 1,000 by market cap (the large-cap index universe). 183 smaller names reporting in the window are excluded; the full list is available on request. Where a name is on our coverage list, the one-line read is ours.

No reporting company matches.

Reports that move something
NameReadWhenMkt capEPS est
Tuesday, August 11
Before open
SESea LimitedBefore open70.3B$0.78
CAHCardinal Health, Inc.Before open55.5B$2.42
ESLTElbit Systems Ltd.Before open39.3B$3.57
VGVenture Global, Inc.Before open35.4B$0.49
ONONOn Holding AGBefore open24.7B$0.38
TMETencent Music Entertainment GroupBefore open15.6B$0.23
ARMKAramarkBefore open14.6B$0.48
SFDSmithfield Foods, Inc.Before open9.6B$0.59
MIDDThe Middleby CorporationBefore open5.9B$2.28
During / TBD
SLABSilicon Laboratories, Inc.During / TBD7.2B$0.17
COGTCogent Biosciences, Inc.During / TBD7.1B($0.55)
AVALGrupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.During / TBD6.3B$0.12
ERASErasca, Inc.During / TBD6.2B($0.12)
MANEVeradermics, IncorporatedDuring / TBD4.6B($0.58)
PHIPLDT Inc.During / TBD4.3B—
TNGXTango Therapeutics, Inc.During / TBD4.0B($0.31)
After close
LITELumentum Holdings Inc.After close63.3B$2.62
CRWVCoreWeave, Inc.After close48.1B($1.67)
FNVFranco-Nevada CorporationAfter close46.4B$1.95
SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.After close18.9B$0.56
QNTQuantinuum Inc.After close14.8B($0.26)
CAVACAVA Group, Inc.After close7.2B$0.18
IFSIntercorp Financial Services Inc.After close6.7B$1.45
HRBH&R Block, Inc.After close5.8B$2.23
FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.After close4.1B($0.50)

Drift book. Post-earnings drift positions our model is still tracking (10-session window from the report date).

Open drift calls
TickerReportedBiasConfidenceGap
UBER08-05Bearish61%−5.3%
ABNB08-06Bearish51%−0.6%
06

Sector Posture

Energy leads over the window at +4.72%; Real Estate brings up the rear at −1.29%. Rotation, not direction, is usually the earlier tell.

Sector performance
ETFSector1D5D21DYTD
XLEEnergy+4.72%+2.88%+6.09%+31.9%
XLVHealth Care+1.69%+3.94%+4.39%+8.3%
XLBMaterials+0.62%+2.27%+5.16%+15.3%
XLCCommunication+0.51%−0.17%+0.21%−4.3%
XLFFinancials+0.36%−0.07%+3.15%+5.2%
XLYDiscretionary−0.11%+1.20%+3.16%+1.1%
XLPStaples−0.21%−0.45%+0.44%+9.3%
XLIIndustrials−0.29%−0.92%+2.38%+16.9%
XLKTechnology−0.87%−0.29%+2.78%+29.1%
XLUUtilities−1.07%−2.18%−5.61%−0.1%
XLREReal Estate−1.29%−1.64%−0.64%+10.0%
07

Insider Tape

The freshest disclosed buys from corporate insiders and Congressional filers, sized by dollars committed. Filing-date entries retain most of the historical edge; scheduled 10b5-1 activity is labelled and should be discounted.

Recent disclosed buying
FilerTickerTrade dateAmountType
Silverman David MAPH08-05$20,908,476EVP, Human Resources
Shellberg Jeffrey D.BWB08-05$3,366,736Insider
Sullivan DonCSW08-05$1,555,812EVP, Chief Strategy Officer
Blaylock Ronald EPFE08-05$998,821Director
Buckley Mortimer JPFE08-05$960,369Director
Harvey David CCVBF08-05$917,680EVP Chief Operating Officer
Mcwatt MichaelNTB08-05$741,319Managing Director, Cayman
08

Options Flow Recap

Our scanner watches the listed options tape in real time for sweeps and blocks hitting at the ask or the bid across the most liquid underlyings. Monday it flagged 205 qualifying prints, the largest a $722,736 single order. The live tape runs on the dashboard during market hours.

09

Levels

Prior-session and five-day extremes. The prior high and low are the first reference points for the open; the five-day range frames the swing.

Reference levels
Index ETFLastPrior highPrior low5-day high5-day low
SPY771.59774.61771.39776.85767.46
QQQ718.28723.30718.03728.54708.50
IWM301.33301.99300.60303.06297.95
DIA538.54541.72538.43546.75537.43
10

Bottom Line

The open belongs to whoever pre-committed. Futures are higher; the walls and prior-session levels above are the map. Take the trade only where a level and a catalyst agree — and size as if the first read is wrong.